TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 30, 10:24 AM EST
Kalshi
This event focuses on the margin of victory in the same Abha vs Al-Ittihad soccer match. Different markets evaluate whether Abha wins by a certain margin or if Al-Ittihad wins by a certain margin, after the full 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
These markets resolve based on the winning margin in the Abha vs Al-Ittihad professional Saudi Pro League soccer game scheduled for October 30, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. The first two markets require Abha to win by more than 2.5 or more than 1.5 goals, respectively. The latter two markets require Al-Ittihad to win by more than 1.5 goals or more than 2.5 goals, respectively. If the condition for a specific market is met, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook’s odds are inaccurate, they can drive the price on Kalshi in a different direction. This can lead to discrepancies, with prediction markets sometimes offering more accurate probabilities, especially as the event approaches and more information becomes available. It’s a fascinating comparison of different forecasting methods.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders bid and ask for contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information and their own analysis, leading to dynamic price movements. The more traders who believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its corresponding contract will climb. This creates a real-time assessment of probabilities driven by collective intelligence.
This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the result of the Abha vs Al-Ittihad match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final score and official result will be used to determine the winning outcome. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will receive a payout based on the final market price at resolution. It’s important to monitor news sources and official announcements as the event approaches to stay informed about any factors that could influence the result and the market's settlement.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 30, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, team form, changes in coaching staff, or even weather conditions could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about team lineups or tactical changes could also lead to significant price movements. Furthermore, large-volume trades by individual participants could temporarily impact the price, creating opportunities for other traders. Monitoring sports news and social media for relevant updates will be crucial for understanding potential catalysts that could move this market.