TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
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MATCHED EVENTS:
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PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
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VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 28, 5:46 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Aberdeen and Falkirk, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. It evaluates whether the winning team achieves a specified goal differential threshold set in different markets. The result is determined solely by the final score after regular time, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates different goal-differential thresholds for determining a resolved outcome in the Aberdeen vs Falkirk Scottish Premiership match scheduled for October 28, 2026. Resolution depends exclusively on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with no consideration for extra time or penalty phases. Four distinct primary rules define specific victory margins: Aberdeen winning by more than 2.5 goals, Aberdeen winning by more than 1.5 goals, Falkirk winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Falkirk winning by more than 2.5 goals. Any market resolving to 'Yes' under its respective rule will be considered settled accordingly, while all other unresolved markets remain open or settle as 'No.' The governing body’s official match result, as recognized by the league, serves as the definitive source for score verification. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any formal affiliation with the league or ownership of associated intellectual property.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, aiming to balance action on both sides. This market, however, allows individuals to express their own beliefs, leading to odds that can diverge from sportsbook lines as new information emerges or public opinion shifts. Often, prediction markets are more accurate than traditional polls or expert forecasts, as they incentivize participants to be well-informed and make rational predictions. These differences can present opportunities for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy contracts for a particular outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the collective intelligence of all participants. The current price indicates what traders are willing to pay to own a contract that pays out if their predicted outcome is correct, offering a unique perspective on the event’s potential results.
This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final result of the Aberdeen vs Falkirk match, specifically the spread as determined by official sources. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts for incorrect outcomes will not. The platform will verify the outcome against established sports data providers to ensure accuracy and transparency. The final result will be publicly available following the conclusion of the match.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market leading up to Oct 28, 2026. Unexpected news regarding player injuries, changes in team form, or even weather conditions could all shift market sentiment. Significant betting activity from informed traders or large volume purchases could also cause price fluctuations. Pre-match analysis from sports analysts and media coverage may also impact the perceived probabilities of different outcomes. Any new information that alters the perceived likelihood of either team winning by the specified spread has the potential to move this market significantly.