TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 11:44 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Abubakar Vagaev or Jacob Malkoun will win their professional MMA fight scheduled for October 24, 2026. Currently, the probability of Abubakar Vagaev winning on Kalshi is 99.0%, while Jacob Malkoun winning is at 1.0%. The market will resolve based on the official result of the fight, as determined by the fight’s outcome. Keep a close watch on the event itself on October 24, 2026, as that is when the outcome of the fight—and this market—will be determined.
The market resolves based on the official result of the Abubakar Vagaev vs. Jacob Malkoun professional MMA fight scheduled for October 24, 2026. If Vagaev wins, his market resolves to Yes; if Malkoun wins, his market resolves to Yes. If the fight ends in a draw or no contest, both markets resolve to $0.50. Post-expiration result changes, disqualifications, or removals do not affect resolution. If the fight is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, the market remains open and resolves based on the final result. If the fight is cancelled or does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time, both markets resolve to a fair price. The markets are not endorsed by Zuffa LLC d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC), and any references to the UFC are descriptive only.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on expert analysis and incorporate a profit margin, while this market allows traders to express their own beliefs about the likely outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply variations in opinion. It’s common to see prediction markets move independently of sportsbooks, especially as new information becomes available or public sentiment shifts regarding the Vagaev vs Malkoun fight.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders bid to buy and offer to sell contracts representing each possible outcome. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices converge towards what the market believes is the fair value. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and changing perspectives on the Vagaev vs Malkoun fight.
This market resolves around Oct 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Vagaev vs Malkoun fight as declared by the relevant sporting authority. Any official decision, including a win by knockout, technical knockout, submission, or decision, will determine the winning contract. The platform will verify the result against established sources to ensure accuracy and finalize the market settlement.
Several factors could influence this market leading up to Oct 24, 2026. News regarding fighter injuries, changes in training regimens, or even pre-fight press conference statements could all shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about weight class changes or potential rule adjustments might also cause price fluctuations. Public opinion, as reflected in polls or analyst predictions, can also play a role, although this market is driven by actual trading activity rather than solely relying on external forecasts regarding the Vagaev vs Malkoun fight.