TOTAL VOLUME:

$146.7b

24H VOL:

$162,970,420

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,781,800,361

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,740,912,349

501,518

Markets across

37,286

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,933

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

BETA

Science and Technology

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

polymarket

limitless

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Total volume:

$15,219,132

Volume 24h:

$40,577

124%

Liquidity:

$435,797

2%

Open interest:

$4,290,389N/A

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Limitless

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Amount

$

Trade on

polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 2.7¢ buys you 3,704 shares | Odds: 3% Total Payout: $3,704 | Net Profit: $3,604 Multiplier: 37.04x | ROI: 3,604% APY not meaningful 70 days to resolution

You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.

Markets

Outcome

Trade

Chance %

Price

Spread

Liquidity

Volume

24h

7d

Open Interest

Ends in

Result

polymarket

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

3%

Yes 2.7¢

No 97.4¢

0.1¢

$435,797

$15,219,132

0.27%

2%

N/A

2mo 1w 3d

active

limitless

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

N/A

N/A

1.5¢

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

2mo 1w 2d

active

PH Consensus

2.7%

Yes 2.7¢

No 97.4¢

Avg: 0.8¢

Max: 1.5¢

Total markets: 2

Intro

This market tracks the likelihood of Xi Jinping being removed from his position as General Secretary of the Communist Party of China before January 1, 2027. Currently, the consensus probability of this occurring, as aggregated from Polymarket and Limitless, is 2.6%. Resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting regarding his resignation, dismissal, detention, disqualification, or inability to fulfill his duties. Keep an eye on the period between July 3, 2025 and December 31, 2026, as this timeframe is key to determining the outcome according to the established resolution rules.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms share identical resolution criteria, timeframe, and resolution source, indicating a consistent understanding of the event's outcome.Primary resolution logic: Consensus of credible reporting

Core resolution logic:

Xi Jinping must be removed from power as General Secretary of the Communist Party of China.
Removal is defined as resignation, dismissal, detention, disqualification, or inability to fulfill duties.
The removal must occur between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Edge cases & clarifications:

Temporary Absence: A temporary absence due to illness or travel, where Xi Jinping retains his position and is expected to return to duties, would not constitute removal from power.
Internal Party Disputes: Internal party disputes or criticisms that do not result in a formal removal from the position of General Secretary would not trigger resolution to 'Yes'.
Resignation vs. Forced Removal: It does not matter if the removal is voluntary (resignation) or involuntary (dismissal, detention, disqualification). Both will resolve the market to 'Yes'.

Timing: The market will resolve upon a consensus of credible reporting confirming Xi Jinping's removal from power within the specified timeframe. Resolution is expected to occur within 72 hours of such reporting.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Limitless

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Limitless, this dashboard tracks the probability of Xi Jinping leaving office before Jan 1, 2027. The Xi Jinping succession market aggregates trading activity from both platforms to provide a consensus view of this possibility. Currently, combined volume across both venues exceeds $15,219,132, with $40,265 traded in the last 24 hours. This reflects significant interest in the potential for a change in leadership in China. The dashboard visualizes the implied probabilities and allows users to compare how different platforms are pricing the same event, offering a comprehensive overview of market sentiment.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what people are *willing to bet* on, providing a stronger signal of actual beliefs. Polling data can be influenced by social desirability bias or inaccurate sampling, whereas the financial incentive in this market encourages more honest and informed predictions. However, both polling and prediction markets have limitations, and it’s beneficial to consider both sources of information when assessing the likelihood of events like a change in China’s leadership.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on whether Xi Jinping has officially relinquished the position of General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, President of the People's Republic of China, or Chairman of the Central Military Commission before the specified date. The outcome will be determined by publicly available information and widely accepted reporting from reputable news organizations and governmental sources.

Several events could significantly impact this market. Unexpected health concerns regarding Xi Jinping, major political scandals within the Chinese Communist Party, or significant internal power struggles would likely cause a shift in probabilities. Economic instability or large-scale social unrest in China could also increase the likelihood of a leadership change. Any official announcements regarding Xi Jinping’s future plans, even ambiguous ones, would be closely watched by traders and could lead to substantial price movements in this market.