TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$218,201,443
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,797,601
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,873,651
500,842
Markets across
13,663
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,809
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?
Jul 25, 2025, 2:59 PM EST - Dec 30, 2026, 7:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$950,611
Volume 24h:
$1,579
1,364%
Liquidity:
$220,984
0.17%
Open interest:
$183,148
0%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group asks whether President Donald Trump will be impeached by the US House of Representatives by the end of 2026. Impeachment requires a simple majority vote to approve one or more articles of impeachment, but does not require Senate trial, conviction, or removal from office. The resolution window is July 24, 2025 through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms use identical resolution criteria: House impeachment by simple majority vote between July 24, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, with no requirement for Senate action or removal.
Primary resolution logic:
Federal government of the United States (official House records); consensus of credible reporting as secondary sourceCore resolution logic:
- YES: US House of Representatives approves one or more articles of impeachment against President Trump by simple majority vote
- YES: Resolution occurs if impeachment vote passes at any point between July 24, 2025, 00:00 ET and December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET
- YES: Senate trial, conviction, or removal from office are NOT required for YES resolution
- NO: If no articles of impeachment are approved by the House by the deadline
- NO: If impeachment vote fails to achieve simple majority in the House
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Multiple articles in single vote: If the House votes on multiple articles of impeachment simultaneously or sequentially, passage of even one article by simple majority resolves to YES
- Timing boundary: Impeachment vote must occur on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A vote occurring after this timestamp resolves to NO
- Senate acquittal: If the House impeaches but the Senate later acquits or fails to convict, the market still resolves YES because impeachment by the House alone is sufficient
- Resignation before vote: If Trump resigns before an impeachment vote occurs, the market resolves NO unless the House votes to impeach before the resignation takes effect
Timing:
Resolution occurs upon passage of articles of impeachment by the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote, or on December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if no impeachment occurs (resolves NO)Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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