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335,484

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4,184

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5

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Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?
Politics
polymarket
kalshi
predict

Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?

Total volume:
$5,885,377
Volume 24h:
$5,453
91%
Liquidity:
$404,515
2%
Open interest:
$1,701,560
0.04%

Before Jan 1, 2028

all

3 markets

Kalshi

59%

Predict

2.6%

Polymarket

2.3%

consensus

21.3%

-0.6%

spread

2.3-59%

(56.7pp)

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Aug 20

Aug 21

Aug 22

Aug 23

Aug 24

Aug 26

Aug 27

Vol.

$82.2k

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will the President be impeached before Jan 1, 2028?

59%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 59¢ buys you 169 shares | Odds: 59% Total Payout: $169 | Net Profit: $69 Multiplier: 1.69x | ROI: 69% High Projected APY: 1,598% 68 days to resolution
predict

Trade on Predict

At 2.6¢ buys you 3,846 shares | Odds: 3% Total Payout: $3,846 | Net Profit: $3,746 Multiplier: 38.46x | ROI: 3,746% APY not meaningful 125 days to resolution
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 2.3¢ buys you 4,348 shares | Odds: 2% Total Payout: $4,348 | Net Profit: $4,248 Multiplier: 43.48x | ROI: 4,248% APY not meaningful 125 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
MUI X License key version mismatch
Total markets: 7

Intro

This market tracks whether Donald Trump will be impeached by the end of 2026. The aggregated consensus probability for the leading outcome is 50.0%, with the second outcome at 22.0%. Data is aggregated from Polymarket, Predict, and Kalshi, and will resolve based on US House of Representatives actions. Watch the end of the betting period on December 31, 2026, for a potential resolution catalyst.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Predict enforce a unified resolution window ending December 31, 2026, while Kalshi offers multiple overlapping date thresholds, with the broadest extending to January 1, 2028. This creates different outcome spaces across platforms.Hero tip: Identify which Kalshi contract you hold (the specific date threshold). If holding the Jan 1, 2028 contract, you have 13 additional months of exposure versus Polymarket. Arbitrage opportunities may exist if Polymarket and Kalshi prices diverge due to this timing mismatch.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Fixed resolution window: July 24, 2025 to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Impeachment by simple majority House vote resolves YES; Senate trial/conviction not required. Primary source: US federal government with credible reporting consensus fallback.
  • Predict: Identical to Polymarket: July 24, 2025 to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Impeachment by simple majority House vote resolves YES. Primary source: US federal government with credible reporting consensus fallback.
  • Kalshi: Multiple impeachment-before thresholds: June 1, 2026; September 1, 2026; January 1, 2027; March 1, 2027; January 1, 2028. Each threshold is a separate binary condition. Broadest window extends 13 months beyond Polymarket/Predict cutoff.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Kalshi

The event resolves Yes if the President of the United States is impeached before any of the following dates: June 1, 2026; September 1, 2026; January 1, 2027; March 1, 2027; or January 1, 2028. Impeachment requires that an impeachment resolution passes while the President holds office. Resolution occurs upon the first impeachment that meets any of these deadlines.

Predict

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading activity for this event across Polymarket and Kalshi, two of the largest prediction markets. It displays the current implied probability that Trump will face impeachment by Dec 31, 2026, along with cumulative trading volume of $5,835,896 and recent 24-hour activity of $46,061. This cross-platform view lets you compare how different market participants price the same political outcome, revealing consensus strength and identifying where traders disagree on likelihood.

Prediction markets and polls measure different things. Polls capture public opinion at a snapshot in time, while prediction markets reflect traders' probabilistic bets on an actual future outcome, incorporating incentives for accuracy. Markets often diverge from polls because traders account for institutional dynamics, legal precedent, and political feasibility that surveys may not capture. For this impeachment question, market odds represent aggregated expectations from participants with real money at stake, making them a distinct signal from traditional political polling.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket and Kalshi serve different user bases, operate under distinct regulatory frameworks, and may have varying liquidity pools. Polymarket currently shows 2.1% while Kalshi reflects 59.0%, a spread of 56.9 percentage points. Price gaps arise from differences in order flow timing, fee structures, available leverage, and trader demographics. Arbitrage opportunities between platforms can persist due to withdrawal delays or geographic restrictions, allowing temporary divergence before prices reconverge.

The market resolves on Dec 31, 2026. Resolution hinges on whether Trump has been impeached by the House of Representatives on or before that date. Impeachment is a formal charge brought by the House; conviction in the Senate is not required for this market to resolve affirmatively. The outcome is determined by official congressional records and public legislative action, making it an objective and verifiable event.

Major catalysts include shifts in House party control following elections, emergence of new investigations or scandals, changes in Republican party unity, and legal developments affecting Trump's status. Congressional leadership statements, committee actions, and media coverage of potential impeachable offenses can all influence trader sentiment. International incidents, economic crises, or major policy failures could alter political dynamics. Additionally, Trump's own statements or legal proceedings may prompt rapid repricing as traders update their probability estimates based on new information about political feasibility and appetite for impeachment.