Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Odds & Prediction Markets

Prediction markets and polls measure different things. Polls capture public opinion at a snapshot in time, while prediction markets reflect traders' probabilistic bets on an actual future outcome, incorporating incentives for accuracy. Markets often diverge from polls because traders account for institutional dynamics, legal precedent, and political feasibility that surveys may not capture. For this impeachment question, market odds represent aggregated expectations from participants with real money at stake, making them a distinct signal from traditional political polling.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket and Kalshi serve different user bases, operate under distinct regulatory frameworks, and may have varying liquidity pools. Polymarket currently shows 3.1% while Kalshi reflects 58.0%, a spread of 54.9 percentage points. Price gaps arise from differences in order flow timing, fee structures, available leverage, and trader demographics. Arbitrage opportunities between platforms can persist due to withdrawal delays or geographic restrictions, allowing temporary divergence before prices reconverge.

The market resolves on Dec 31, 2026. Resolution hinges on whether Trump has been impeached by the House of Representatives on or before that date. Impeachment is a formal charge brought by the House; conviction in the Senate is not required for this market to resolve affirmatively. The outcome is determined by official congressional records and public legislative action, making it an objective and verifiable event.

Major catalysts include shifts in House party control following elections, emergence of new investigations or scandals, changes in Republican party unity, and legal developments affecting Trump's status. Congressional leadership statements, committee actions, and media coverage of potential impeachable offenses can all influence trader sentiment. International incidents, economic crises, or major policy failures could alter political dynamics. Additionally, Trump's own statements or legal proceedings may prompt rapid repricing as traders update their probability estimates based on new information about political feasibility and appetite for impeachment.