TOTAL VOLUME:
$97.5b
24H VOL:
$262,573,226
24H TRANSACTIONS:
951,878,243
OPEN INTEREST:
$2,187,805,448
831,787
Markets across
15,132
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
964
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
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Description
These markets assess whether FUT Esports will make changes to its main CS2 roster before specified deadlines in 2026. Both markets track the same core roster (dem0n, lauNX, Krabeni, cmtry, dziugss) using HLTV as the primary source, but differ in scope, threshold, and resolution dates.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Two distinct event definitions: Limitless requires 2+ player departures by July 15; Polymarket requires any roster change (join or leave) by August 31. Threshold, direction, and deadline all differ.Hero tip: Treat these as separate markets with different risk profiles. Polymarket YES can resolve true even if Limitless resolves NO (e.g., one player joins, zero leave). Limitless YES implies Polymarket YES, but not vice versa. Monitor HLTV roster page closely from June onward; early departures favor Polymarket; sustained stability favors both NO.Critical divergence points:
- Limitless: Departure-only threshold market. Requires 2+ of the five named starters to no longer appear in HLTV Starter table by July 15, 2026, 23:59 UTC. Inbound transfers do not count. Key Quote: 'at least two players from FUT's main CS2 roster are no longer listed as Starter on HLTV by July 15, 2026.'
- Polymarket: Bidirectional roster change market. Requires any single player to join or leave the active starter lineup by August 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. Includes signings, transfers, benching, releases, and departures. Excludes coach changes and single-event stand-ins. Key Quote: 'if any player joins or leaves FUT Esports' main cs2 roster by August 31 11:59pm ET, 2026.'
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player joins or leaves FUT Esports' main cs2 roster (defined as players listed with status = "Starter" in the "Players of FUT" table on HLTV: https://www.hltv.org/team/13286/fut#tab-rosterBox) by August 31 11:59pm ET, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". As of market creation the active starter roster consists of the following five players: cmtry, dziugss, Krabeni, dem0n, lauNX. Name changes or aliases referring to the same player do not qualify as roster changes. For the purpose of this market, "roster change" refers to any official signing, transfer, benching to inactive/reserve, release, retirement, or departure of a player from the active starter lineup. This includes adding new players (transfers, free agent signings, or loans), removing players (to bench/inactive, free agency, or other teams), or any change resulting in a different 5-player active roster on HLTV. Coach changes and temporary stand-ins for a single event will not count. For matches and events, the stand-in appears in the active 5-player lineup but with a clear marker (e.g., [SI]) to distinguish them from the core roster. The primary resolution source for this market will be HLTV; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Limitless
This market will resolve to "YES" if at least two players from FUT's main CS2 roster are no longer listed as "Starter" on HLTV by July 15, 2026, 23:59 UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "NO." As of market creation, FUT's main CS2 roster consists of the following five players: dem0n, lauNX, Krabeni, cmtry, and dziugss. Primary resolution source: HLTV FUT roster page: https://www.hltv.org/team/13286/fut#tab-rosterBox The "Starter" status will be determined using the "Players of FUT" table on the HLTV roster page. If any of the five listed players no longer appears in that table, this will also count as no longer being listed as "Starter." This market may resolve to "YES" as soon as at least two of the listed players are no longer listed as "Starter." If HLTV.org is unavailable at the resolution time and remains unavailable for 72 hours, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets like those tracking this event operate differently from traditional sportsbooks. Rather than a bookmaker setting fixed lines, traders themselves determine odds through continuous buying and selling, creating a crowdsourced probability estimate. Sportsbooks typically offer fixed spreads with built-in margins, while prediction markets reflect aggregate trader conviction with minimal intermediary markup. For esports roster moves, prediction markets often react faster to insider rumors and community signals than sportsbooks, which may not offer odds on such granular outcomes. This makes prediction markets particularly valuable for niche events where specialized knowledge concentrates among traders.
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