TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.3b

24H VOL:

$107,419,736

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,594,026,835

471,138

Markets across

35,775

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,926

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Will Base launch a token by ___ ?
kalshi
polymarket

Will Base launch a token by 2028?

Total volume:
$8,129,148
Volume 24h:
$6,033
64%
Liquidity:
$32,092
78%
Open interest:
$27,297
0.33%

December 31, 2027

 - Polymarket

December 31, 2027 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2028

Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027?

43%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 44¢ buys you 227 shares | Odds: 43% Total Payout: $227 | Net Profit: $127 Multiplier: 2.27x | ROI: 127% | APY: 97% 443 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

December 31, 2027

Trade
43%
8%
Yes 44¢No 59¢
3¢
$8,172
$49,651
3%
4%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
kalshi

Exponent

Trade
24%
3%
Yes 28¢No 76¢
4¢
N/A
$6,029
2%
38%
$941
2mo 2w 4d
active
polymarket

June 30, 2027

Trade
20%
Yes 21¢No 81¢
2¢
$4,471
$26,692
0%
0.61%
N/A
8mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

OpenSea

Trade
18%
1%
Yes 17¢No 86¢
3¢
N/A
$6,929
2%
8%
$1,904
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Felix

Trade
12%
6%
Yes 17¢No 88¢
5¢
N/A
$4,301
0.12%
7%
$1,281
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Arc

Trade
11%
1%
Yes 15¢No 89¢
4¢
N/A
$21,807
0.04%
10%
$7,518
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Ostium

Trade
11%
Yes 11¢No 93¢
4¢
N/A
$6,055
0%
0%
$1,133
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Fomo

Trade
9%
4%
Yes 10¢No 94¢
4¢
N/A
$7,652
0.14%
4%
$2,225
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Phantom

Trade
9%
Yes 9¢No 97¢
6¢
N/A
$3,176
0%
0%
$1,144
2mo 2w 4d
active
polymarket

December 31, 2026

Trade
9%
2%
Yes 9¢No 92¢
1¢
$19,448
$767,272
0.57%
1%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Base

Trade
7%
3%
Yes 8¢No 96¢
4¢
N/A
$6,434
0.24%
0.24%
$1,380
2mo 2w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
8.5%
Yes 8.5¢No 94¢
Avg: 2.5¢Max: 4¢
kalshi

MetaMask

Trade
8%
Yes 8¢No 98¢
6¢
N/A
$5,595
0%
2%
$2,125
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Abstract

Trade
7%
5%
Yes 7¢No 98¢
5¢
N/A
$7,781
0.21%
0.96%
$2,686
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

CME Group

Trade
6%
Yes 7¢No 98¢
5¢
N/A
$2,170
0%
11%
$459
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Rabby

Trade
5%
Yes 11¢No 95¢
6¢
N/A
$2,831
0%
0%
$750
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Unit

Trade
3%
Yes 6¢No 98¢
4¢
N/A
$1,624
0%
0%
$980
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Tempo

Trade
3%
Yes 8¢No 98¢
6¢
N/A
$2,372
0%
0%
$1,315
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Rainbow

View
99%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,453
N/A
N/A
$547
2mo 2w 4d
No
kalshi

Backpack

View
98%
Yes 98¢No 8¢
6¢
N/A
$1,357
N/A
N/A
$909
2mo 2w 4d
Yes
polymarket

December 31, 2025

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,891,817
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 30, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,753,239
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 30, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$552,911
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 22

Intro

This market tracks the likelihood of Base, a layer-2 scaling solution for Ethereum, launching a transferable and tradable token. Currently, the consensus probability of Base launching a token by December 31, 2026 is 45.0%, while the probability of Exponent launching a token before January 1, 2027 is 25.0%. This aggregated view combines data from Kalshi and Polymarket, and will resolve based on information from Base, supplemented by credible reporting. Keep an eye on Base’s official communications regarding token development, as any announcements about a publicly tradable token will be critical ahead of the resolution date estimate of January 1, 2028.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi markets include a wide range of projects, while Polymarket focuses exclusively on Base. Kalshi also has a fixed resolution date of January 1, 2027, while Polymarket has multiple markets with varying end dates.Hero tip: Focus on Polymarket markets for a direct prediction on Base's token launch. Kalshi markets are more about the broader ecosystem of potential token launches.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Markets resolve 'Yes' if Base officially launches a publicly tradable token by the specified date. Resolution source is Base's announcements and credible reporting.
  • Kalshi: Markets resolve 'Yes' if Base *or other listed projects* launch a token before January 1, 2027. Resolution source is based on project issuance.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Base officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Kalshi

Each outcome resolves to Yes if the specified project launches a fungible token after the market's issuance and before January 1, 2027. A valid token launch requires all of the following: deployment on a blockchain network, official project announcement as their token, transferability between wallet addresses, real economic value (not testnet), an active liquidity pool with real value, and distribution via public sale, private sale, airdrop, liquidity provision, or exchange listing. Valid launches include ICOs, TGEs, airdrops, fair launches, testnet-to-mainnet migrations, token swaps, and governance/utility tokens with market value. Excluded are future announcements without deployment, non-transferable tokens or points, testnet tokens, fully locked tokens, NFTs, soulbound tokens, internal ecosystem tokens, wrapped tokens of existing assets, unactivated contracts, and points converting after the deadline.

Frequently asked questions

Unlike traditional spot markets that reflect current prices, prediction markets like this one forecast the probability of a future event. The odds in this market represent the collective belief of traders regarding the likelihood of Base launching a token. These probabilities can be interpreted as implied probabilities, offering a different perspective than simply looking at the potential future price of a token. While not directly comparable to spot prices, these markets can provide valuable insight into market sentiment and expectations surrounding the Base ecosystem and its potential token launch.

On Polymarket, this market is currently priced with 42.5% probability for Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027?, while Kalshi shows 24.0% probability for Will Exponent launch a token before Jan 1, 2027?. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. This divergence can occur due to several factors, including differing user bases, trading fees, market-specific liquidity, and varying interpretations of available information. Each platform attracts a unique set of traders with potentially different risk appetites and perspectives on the Base token launch. Furthermore, the volume traded on each platform can influence price discovery, leading to temporary discrepancies between the two markets.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2028, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether Base officially launches a token before the specified date. The outcome will be determined by publicly available information regarding Base’s actions, and will not rely on any single source. Traders should monitor official announcements from the Base team and related news sources for updates that may influence the resolution of this market. The focus is on a verifiable launch, not just announcements or intentions.

Several key events could significantly impact this market. Official announcements from the Coinbase team regarding Base’s roadmap, particularly any mentions of a token launch, would be major catalysts. Positive developments in the Base ecosystem, such as increased developer activity or user adoption, could also increase confidence in a launch. Conversely, regulatory hurdles or technical challenges could decrease the probability. Major news regarding competing layer-2 solutions or broader cryptocurrency market trends could also influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market.