TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$198,735,462
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,413,651
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,238,334,809
499,092
Markets across
13,695
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,769
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Will Ariana Grande release Petal by...?
Total volume:
$446
Volume 24h:
$0
100%
Liquidity:
$66
17%
Open interest:
$197
0%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Ariana Grande will release her album 'Petal' by various dates in 2026. Kalshi markets focus on first-week pure album sales thresholds during a specific tracking week (July 31 - August 6, 2026), while Polymarket markets focus on official release availability by three different deadline dates (June 30, July 31, and August 31, 2026).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket measure fundamentally different resolution criteria: Polymarket resolves on release occurrence by deadline date, while Kalshi resolves on sales performance during a specific tracking week. These are orthogonal outcomes that require independent monitoring.Hero Tip:
Treat these as separate markets with different resolution paths. Polymarket resolution depends on official release announcement/availability by stated dates. Kalshi resolution depends on Billboard/Nielsen sales data for the July 31 - August 6, 2026 tracking week. A YES on one platform does not guarantee YES on the other. Monitor both release date rumors and projected sales figures independently.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Release-based resolution. Resolves YES if Petal is officially available for download or streaming by deadline (June 30, July 31, or August 31, 2026). Resolution source: official streaming platforms (Apple Music, Spotify) or credible reporting consensus. Three separate markets with different deadline dates.
- Kalshi: Sales-performance resolution. Resolves YES if Petal achieves any of 15 specified pure album sales thresholds (10K to 150K) during the July 31 - August 6, 2026 tracking week only. Presupposes release has occurred; measures commercial outcome, not timing.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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