TOTAL VOLUME:
$97.5b
24H VOL:
$265,777,486
24H TRANSACTIONS:
951,878,243
OPEN INTEREST:
$2,180,190,804
831,303
Markets across
15,095
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
966
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations
2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?
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Trade on Kalshi
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 97¢ buys you 103 shares | Odds: 97% Total Payout: $103 | Net Profit: $3 Multiplier: 1.03x | ROI: 3% | APY: 6% 188 days to resolutionTrade on Polymarket
At 96¢ buys you 104 shares | Odds: 96% Total Payout: $104 | Net Profit: $4 Multiplier: 1.04x | ROI: 4% | APY: 8% 188 days to resolutionIntro
This market tracks whether the film "Fjord" will receive a Best Picture nomination at the 99th Academy Awards. Across Kalshi and Polymarket, the aggregated consensus probability stands at 95.0%. Resolution will be determined by the Official Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announcement and oscars.org, with the nomination list revealed during the live broadcast on January 21, 2027. Watch for the official Academy announcement on that date to see whether "Fjord" secures a spot among the year's top contenders.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Kalshi and Polymarket use identical binary logic: nomination occurs = YES, no nomination = NO, with the same official AMPAS source and January 21, 2027 announcement date as the resolution trigger.Primary resolution logic: Official Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) announcement and oscars.org; live broadcast of nomination announcement on January 21, 2027; consensus of credible reporting if needed.Core resolution logic:
- Market resolves YES if the named film receives an official Best Picture nomination from AMPAS for the 99th Academy Awards.
- Market resolves NO if the named film does not appear on the official Best Picture nominees list when announced on January 21, 2027.
- Market resolves NO if no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (force resolution to prevent indefinite ambiguity).
- Each film has its own independent binary market; nomination of one film does not affect resolution of another.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Ceremony Postponement or Cancellation: If the 99th Academy Awards ceremony is postponed or cancelled entirely, markets resolve NO as of the original deadline (March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET) unless nominations were already officially announced.
- Tie or Co-Nomination: If a film receives a nomination under any official AMPAS designation (including co-nominations or alternative titles), the market resolves YES.
- Title Variations: Markets are tied to the exact film title listed. If a film is nominated under a slightly different title (e.g., subtitle changes), resolution depends on whether AMPAS officially recognizes it as the same film; credible reporting consensus applies.
- Nomination Retraction: If AMPAS officially retracts a nomination after announcement but before March 14, 2027, the market resolves NO retroactively.
Polymarket
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed film is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Picture. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Picture when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
A film receives a Yes resolution if it is nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards. The nomination announcement is expected in January 2027. Each film listed represents a separate market outcome, and any film that receives an official Best Picture nomination will resolve to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets for Best Picture nominations reflect real-money stakes and continuous price discovery, often diverging from traditional critic and analyst predictions. Market odds incorporate box-office performance, festival buzz, guild precursor voting, and late-breaking industry sentiment faster than static forecasts. While analysts rely on historical patterns and subjective judgment, traders on Polymarket and Kalshi update odds dynamically as new information emerges. Cross-referencing market prices with published expert rankings reveals where consensus breaks and which films carry hidden conviction or skepticism.
Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price differences between Polymarket and Kalshi stem from distinct user bases, contract specifications, and liquidity pools. Polymarket currently shows 95.5% for its top outcome, while Kalshi reflects 97.0%, a spread of 1.5 percentage points. Variations arise from different fee structures, trading hours, regulatory frameworks, and how each platform frames nomination eligibility. Traders may also hold stronger convictions on one venue, creating temporary mispricings that savvy bettors exploit before convergence.
The market resolves on Jan 21, 2027, coinciding with the official announcement of Best Picture nominees at the 99th Academy Awards ceremony. Resolution hinges on which films receive official nominations in the Best Picture category as announced by the Academy. Traders should monitor the official Academy Awards schedule and any rule changes to the nomination process. Market prices will tighten significantly as the ceremony approaches and final ballots are cast by Academy members.
Key catalysts include major film festival debuts and awards (Venice, Toronto, Berlin), guild precursor voting (BAFTA, Golden Globes, SAG Awards, PGA, DGA), box-office milestones, and critical reviews. Surprise box-office breakouts or underperformers shift nomination odds rapidly. Industry controversies, filmmaker statements, or late-breaking releases can reshape trader expectations. As the ceremony nears, Academy member voting patterns and last-minute campaign pushes influence market prices. Tracking trade publications, social media sentiment, and betting volume spikes helps identify inflection points before prices adjust.
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