TOTAL VOLUME:
$97.2b
24H VOL:
$177,903,386
24H TRANSACTIONS:
950,106,883
OPEN INTEREST:
$2,049,845,057
824,617
Markets across
14,701
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
899
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? Odds & Prediction Markets
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?
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Intro
This market on Kalshi tracks whether Ruben Gallego will announce a presidential campaign to contest the Democratic party's nomination for the 2028 U.S. presidential election. The leading outcome currently stands at 86.0%. Resolution is determined by official announcement of candidacy, with the betting window closing on January 1, 2028—the final deadline for Gallego to declare his candidacy before market settlement.
Kalshi
If Cory Booker announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Hunter Biden announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Gavin Newsom announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Josh Shapiro announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Pete Buttigieg announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Gretchen Whitmer announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Wes Moore announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kamala Harris announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Stephen A. Smith announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Andy Beshear announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If J.B. Pritzker announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If John Fetterman announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Michelle Obama announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Mark Cuban announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Roy Cooper announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Raphael Warnock announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tim Walz announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Mark Kelly announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jared Polis announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jon Stewart announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Rahm Emanuel announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Barack Obama announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Hillary Clinton announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Dean Phillips announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Phil Murphy announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Chris Van Hollen announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Elissa Slotkin announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Abigail Spanberger announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jon Ossoff announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Chris Murphy announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ruben Gallego announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ro Khanna announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Mikie Sherrill announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Mitch Landrieu announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If James Talarico announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling because markets incorporate trader expectations about candidate viability, fundraising, endorsements, and electability—factors that polls may lag in reflecting. While polls measure current voter preference among the general public, prediction markets aggregate real-money bets from participants with financial incentive to forecast accurately. For the 2028 Democratic nomination, market odds may weight insider knowledge, party dynamics, and strategic candidate decisions more heavily than snapshot polls. Comparing the two reveals whether the market sees nomination chances differently than headline survey data.
On Kalshi, the Democratic presidential nomination market is priced as a set of binary contracts, each representing whether a specific candidate will run. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The top outcome currently reflects 86.0% implied probability. Each contract trades between 0 and 100 cents, with the price directly representing the market's consensus likelihood. Traders buy contracts they believe are underpriced and sell those they view as overpriced. As new information emerges—candidate announcements, polling shifts, or political events—prices adjust in real time to reflect updated expectations about who will enter the race.
The market resolves on Jan 1, 2028, establishing a final cutoff for candidate entry into the Democratic 2028 presidential race. Resolution is determined by whether each nominated candidate formally announces their candidacy and meets the criteria for being considered an official nominee by that date. Outcomes are binary for each candidate: either they ran or they did not. Official announcements, FEC filings, and major news sources serve as reference points for determining which candidates qualify. Early resolution may occur if a candidate explicitly rules out a run before the end date.
Major catalysts include formal candidate announcements or withdrawals, shifts in party leadership and endorsements, changes in polling and favorability ratings, and significant political events affecting perceived electability. Fundraising announcements, media coverage, and debate participation signals can shift trader expectations about who will enter the race. Unexpected developments—scandals, health issues, or strategic pivots—may cause rapid repricing. Additionally, early primary results or state-level organizing efforts can influence whether candidates commit to running. Each signal updates the market's collective forecast about the final Democratic 2028 nomination field.
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