TOTAL VOLUME:
$92.3b
24H VOL:
$338,929,275
24H TRANSACTIONS:
885,851,817
OPEN INTEREST:
$2,146,969,739
779,810
Markets across
14,080
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
877
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
46%
VS.
Kalshi:
54%
Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Odds & Prediction Markets
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?
$
$20
$50
$100
$500
Intro
This market on Kalshi tracks whether Steve Bannon will announce a presidential campaign to contest the Republican party's 2028 nomination. The leading outcome currently stands at 71.0% probability. Resolution is determined by official announcement of a campaign before January 1, 2028, as specified by Kalshi's resolution criteria. Watch for any formal campaign declaration from Bannon ahead of the January 1, 2028 deadline.
Kalshi
If J.D. Vance announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Donald J. Trump announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Donald J. Trump Jr. announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tulsi Gabbard announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ron DeSantis announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Vivek Ramaswamy announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Marco Rubio announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Glenn Youngkin announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Nikki Haley announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Sarah Huckabee Sanders announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Greg Abbott announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Elon Musk announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Brian Kemp announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Matt Gaetz announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Byron Donalds announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Elise Stefanik announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Josh Hawley announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Rand Paul announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ted Cruz announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Katie Britt announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If John Thune announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tucker Carlson announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Steve Bannon announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Marjorie Taylor Greene announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Erika Kirk announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Pete Hegseth announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jared Kushner announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Thomas Massie announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jeff Bezos announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Spencer Pratt announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If John McEntee announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If Gregory Bovino announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling because they reflect real-money incentives—traders profit only if their forecast is correct. While polls measure stated voter preference at a single moment, prediction markets aggregate forward-looking expectations about candidate entry decisions. Markets typically react faster to breaking news, endorsements, and fundraising signals. Comparing Kalshi odds to major polling aggregators reveals whether the market is pricing in candidate viability differently than public surveys suggest, offering insight into which candidates insiders view as likely or unlikely to run.
On Kalshi, the 2028 Republican nomination market is priced as binary contracts where traders buy or sell shares representing yes or no outcomes for each candidate's entry decision. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The top outcome currently reflects 79.0% implied probability, meaning the market consensus leans toward that scenario. Prices fluctuate based on order flow, news, and new information. Each contract settles to 1 or 0 upon resolution, so the price you see directly represents the market's belief in the likelihood of that candidate running by the deadline.
The market resolves on Jan 1, 2028, marking the official end of the 2028 Republican nomination filing and entry window. Resolution is determined by whether each candidate formally declares candidacy and meets all legal and procedural requirements to appear on primary ballots or compete in early contests. Official announcements, FEC filings, and state election authority records serve as the basis for settlement. Any candidate who withdraws before the deadline or fails to meet filing requirements will resolve according to their final status at market close.
Major catalysts include formal campaign announcements or withdrawal statements from top-tier candidates, shifts in early primary polling and endorsements, changes in fundraising capacity, and health or legal developments affecting candidate viability. Media coverage of candidate positioning, debates, and Iowa or New Hampshire activity will drive trader sentiment. Unexpected political events—such as shifts in party dynamics, primary rule changes, or emergence of new frontrunners—can rapidly reprrice odds. Closer to Jan 1, 2028, filing deadlines and ballot access requirements become critical decision points that may trigger final candidate entry or exit announcements.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.