TOTAL VOLUME:
$97.2b
24H VOL:
$177,903,386
24H TRANSACTIONS:
950,106,883
OPEN INTEREST:
$2,049,845,057
824,617
Markets across
14,701
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
899
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
Who will have a #1 hit this year? Odds & Prediction Markets
Will Mariah Carey have a #1 hit this year?
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Intro
This market on Kalshi tracks whether Mariah Carey will achieve a number-one hit on the Billboard Hot 100 chart during 2026. The leading outcome currently stands at 96.0% probability. Resolution will be determined by the Billboard Hot 100 chart issue for the week of December 26, 2026, which will confirm whether Mariah Carey secured a chart-topping song, including any featured artist collaborations, by year-end.
Kalshi
Each artist's market resolves to Yes if they achieve a #1 position on the Billboard Hot 100 by the December 26, 2026 chart issue, including songs where they are credited as a featured artist. Resolution is determined by Billboard's official rankings, and these markets are not endorsed by Billboard. The specific chart issue date of December 26, 2026 serves as the final measurement point for all outcomes.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, Who will have a #1 hit this year is priced as binary outcome contracts for individual artists. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The leading outcome, Will Kanye West / Ye have a #1 hit this year?, trades at 89.0% probability, reflecting trader conviction around that artist's likelihood of landing a chart-topper. Prices move based on new music announcements, streaming momentum, radio play, and chart positioning. Each outcome contract settles to either one dollar or zero at year-end, making the current price equivalent to the implied probability. Traders buy outcomes they believe will occur and sell those they think won't.
The Who will have a #1 hit this year market resolves on Dec 26, 2026. Resolution is determined by whether each artist achieves a number-one position on the official Billboard Hot 100 chart during the calendar year. The market tracks all eligible artists and outcomes, settling each contract based on verified chart data at year-end. Only confirmed number-one hits count toward resolution; chart positions below first place do not trigger payouts. The event captures the full year's worth of music releases and chart performance across all genres and formats.
Major catalysts include new album or single announcements from top artists, surprise releases, and real-time Billboard Hot 100 chart updates. Streaming milestones, radio airplay spikes, and viral social media moments can rapidly shift odds for specific artists. Award show performances, collaborations with established hitmakers, and major label promotional campaigns all influence trader sentiment. Chart debuts and weekly position changes throughout the year provide continuous feedback. Industry news—such as label changes, tour announcements, or artist controversies—can also move probabilities. Traders monitor music news outlets, streaming platforms, and chart trackers closely to stay ahead of shifting odds.
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