TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$198,735,462
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,413,651
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,238,334,809
499,092
Markets across
13,695
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,769
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if another official trailer for the next GTA (GTA VI) is released by Rockstar Games or any of its official accounts, including but not limited to Rockstar's official website, YouTube channel, Twitter, or any other official social media platform between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An "official trailer" is defined as a video clearly labelled and marketed as a trailer for the game in question. Teasers, gameplay snippets, or other promotional materials will not qualify for resolution unless explicitly marketed as an official trailer by Rockstar Games. This market will resolve immediately if such an official trailer is released by the expiry date. If no official trailer is released by the specified date, this market will resolve to "No".
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi presents seven overlapping resolution dates (May 1 through November 1, 2026) while Polymarket enforces a single May 31, 2026 deadline. The event group name references May 31, but Kalshi's structure allows resolution as early as May 1 and as late as November 1, creating temporal ambiguity and multiple resolution pathways.Hero Tip:
Clarify the intended deadline for the event group. If May 31 is the canonical cutoff, Polymarket's logic is clean and Kalshi's May 1 condition will resolve first if a trailer drops in May. If Kalshi's ladder structure is intentional, this is not a single binary event but seven separate markets with cascading dates. Check with PredictionHero for the authoritative deadline before trading.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Single fixed deadline: May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Resolves Yes if an official trailer (clearly labeled and marketed as such) is released by Rockstar Games through official channels (website, YouTube, Twitter, official social media) by the cutoff. Teasers and gameplay snippets do not qualify unless explicitly marketed as an official trailer. Resolves immediately upon release or No if deadline passes without release.
- Kalshi: Seven independent conditions with dates: May 1, Jun 1, Jul 1, Aug 1, Sep 1, Oct 1, and Nov 1, 2026. Each resolves to Yes if a 30+ second official trailer is released before that date. No exclusions for teasers or gameplay snippets are specified. Structure suggests multiple resolution triggers rather than a single May 31 event.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.