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406,422
Markets across
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MATCHED EVENTS:
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Polymarket:
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VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Troy Jackson
- Polymarket
Troy Jackson - Polymarket
1W
News
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Negative
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 28, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jul 28, 2:14 AM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks whether Troy Jackson will be the Maine Democratic Party's official nominee for the 2026 U.S. Senate election. On Polymarket, Troy Jackson stands at 99.3%, while Candidate B is at 0.5%. Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the Maine Democratic Party or overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. The outcome hinges on whether the current nominee withdraws by the July 13 at 5:00PM ET deadline, which would trigger the party's replacement window ending on July 27 at 5:00PM ET.
Polymarket
If a party nominee in Maine voluntarily withdraws from their election by July 13 at 5:00PM ET, their political party may replace them by July 27 at 5:00PM ET. This market will resolve according to the individual who is the Maine Democratic Party's apparent nominee for the 2026 U.S. Senate election on July 27 at 11:59PM ET. This market will consider Graham Platner to be the apparent nominee unless he withdraws from the election, voluntarily or otherwise. If Graham Platner has withdrawn from the election, an official announcement by the Maine Democratic Party that an individual has been chosen as the replacement nominee will qualify such individual as the apparent nominee, regardless of any subsequent legal steps that have yet to be confirmed. In the event that there is not an apparent nominee in this election, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official announcements of the results from the Maine Democratic Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds and polling averages often diverge because they measure different things. Polls capture voter sentiment at a single moment, while this market aggregates traders' forward-looking expectations about the actual nomination outcome. Markets typically incorporate polling data but also factor in campaign momentum, fundraising, endorsements, and perceived electability. In competitive races, market odds may show more volatility than polls and can shift rapidly in response to breaking news. Both tools are useful: polls reveal current voter preferences, whereas market prices reflect probabilistic forecasts of the final result.
On Polymarket, traders buy and sell shares representing each candidate's nomination chances, with prices ranging from 0 to 100 cents per share. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a share directly reflects the market's implied probability: a candidate trading at 75 cents has an 75% implied chance of becoming the nominee. Liquidity and order flow determine how quickly prices move when new trades arrive. Traders profit by correctly predicting the outcome, creating incentives for accurate pricing and continuous market adjustment as information evolves.
This market resolves around Jul 27, 2026, once the Democratic nominee for Maine's Senate race is officially determined. The outcome will be verified against credible public sources and official party announcements. Resolution hinges on the formal nomination process—whether through a primary election, convention, or party designation—and confirmation of the winner. Traders should monitor state party timelines and any rule changes that could affect the nomination schedule. Early resolution is possible if a candidate clinches the nomination before the end date.
Several catalysts could shift odds significantly. Primary polling releases and candidate endorsements often trigger sharp price movements, as do campaign announcements, debate performances, and fundraising reports. Unexpected candidate withdrawals or entries reshape the field instantly. Local media coverage, voter registration trends, and turnout models influence trader sentiment. National political developments—shifts in party strategy or changes to the primary calendar—can also impact expectations. Major gaffes, scandals, or sudden surges in grassroots support typically generate rapid repricing. Traders should track Maine Democratic Party communications and state election deadlines closely.
