TOTAL VOLUME:
$97.2b
24H VOL:
$195,930,743
24H TRANSACTIONS:
950,106,883
OPEN INTEREST:
$2,066,493,046
825,151
Markets across
14,840
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
886
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
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This market tracks whether The Weeknd will receive a featured artist credit on Ariana Grande's upcoming album Petal. On Polymarket, the probability stands at 94.0% that The Weeknd will be featured on at least one track. Resolution will be determined by checking major streaming platforms including Spotify, Apple Music, Amazon Music, and YouTube Music for official artist credits. Watch for the album's release, which must occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET to avoid a No resolution.
This market will resolve according to the listed artists who feature on Ariana Grande's album "Petal". To qualify as "featured", the listed artist must be credited on at least one song on the album according to at least one major streaming platform: namely Spotify, Apple Music, Amazon Music, or YouTube Music. If the album fails to release by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source of this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money consensus from traders betting on which artist will feature on Petal. Unlike traditional analyst forecasts or social media polls, markets incorporate financial incentives that reward accuracy. The current top outcome sits at 45.4%, representing aggregated trader conviction. Analyst predictions and music industry commentary may diverge from market pricing, as traders often incorporate leaked information, artist statements, or production timelines that formal forecasts miss or weight differently.
On Polymarket, the Who will be featured on Petal market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader bets into real-time probabilities. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The leading outcome, Will Ariana Grande feature Nicki Minaj on Petal, trades at 45.4%, meaning traders assign that probability to the event occurring. Prices shift as new trades execute, reflecting updated expectations about the album's final tracklist and featured collaborations. Volume of $4,173 indicates the cumulative capital deployed across all outcomes.
The market resolves on Jul 31, 2026. Resolution depends on the official release and tracklist of the Petal album, which will confirm whether the predicted featured artist appears on the final version. Market participants are betting on the album's actual composition as it becomes publicly available. Until that date, odds may shift based on artist announcements, production updates, or leaked information about collaborations.
Key catalysts include official announcements from Ariana Grande or her label about Petal's tracklist and featured artists. Leaked song snippets, studio session reports, or social media hints from collaborators could shift trader expectations significantly. Chart performance or streaming data from pre-release singles may signal which direction the album is heading. Industry news about artist availability or scheduling conflicts could also influence odds. Any credible reporting on the album's release date or surprise collaborations will likely trigger sharp price movements as traders update their positions.
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