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Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?
polymarket

Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?

Nov 12, 2025, 5:23 PM EST - Jan 31, 2027, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$2,505,269
Volume 24h:
$6,222
65%
Liquidity:
$103,258
6%
Open interest:
$162,759N/A

Avengers: Doomsday

 - Polymarket

Avengers: Doomsday - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 31, 2027

Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?

55%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 56¢ buys you 179 shares | Odds: 55% Total Payout: $179 | Net Profit: $79 Multiplier: 1.79x | ROI: 79% High Projected APY: 730% 99 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Avengers: Doomsday

Trade
55%
Yes 56¢No 46¢
2¢
$16,647
$509,639
0.78%
7%
N/A
3mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Trade
44%
Yes 45¢No 57¢
2¢
$15,560
$326,136
0.69%
11%
N/A
3mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

Dune: Messiah

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$21,104
$185,210
0%
2%
N/A
3mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$49,947
$82,715
0%
6%
N/A
3mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

Michael

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$601,009
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 1w
No
polymarket

The Odyssey

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$229,614
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 1w
No
polymarket

Toy Story 5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$220,011
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 1w
No
polymarket

Wuthering Heights

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$122,856
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 1w
No
polymarket

Project Hail Mary

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$91,481
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 1w
No
polymarket

Scream 7

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$67,648
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 1w
No
polymarket

Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$47,227
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 1w
No
polymarket

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21,723
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 1w
No
Total markets: 12

Description

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the 2026 box office market tracks the probabilities associated with different movies achieving the highest opening weekend gross in 2026. You can view the current odds for each potential outcome, along with a price history chart showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $6,187, and the total volume traded to date, which is $2,505,269. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the potential success of upcoming films.

On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each movie's likelihood of having the biggest opening weekend. The price of each share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. Higher demand for shares in a particular movie will drive up its price, increasing its implied probability, and vice versa. This creates a dynamic pricing mechanism driven by real-time market activity.

This market resolves around Feb 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the movie with the highest domestic opening weekend gross in 2026, as reported by a widely recognized box office tracking source, will be declared the winner. The resolution will be based on publicly available data and will be determined by the platform’s standard procedures for verifying event outcomes. The market will then settle, and winning shares will be redeemable at a value of 1 USDC per share.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Major casting announcements, trailer releases, and shifts in release dates for anticipated blockbusters are likely to cause price fluctuations. Positive or negative critical reception of early footage could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected news regarding production delays or creative changes could also move the market. Furthermore, the performance of similar films released in the lead-up to 2026 may provide valuable insights and influence trading activity in this market.