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OPEN INTEREST:

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494,234

Markets across

37,330

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,871

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

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VS.

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Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
polymarket
kalshi
limitless

Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

Total volume:
$415,837
Volume 24h:
$2,693
3,162%
Liquidity:
$134,579
6%
Open interest:
$5,418
0.42%

Mexico

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Limitless

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027?

16%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 22¢ buys you 455 shares | Odds: 16% Total Payout: $455 | Net Profit: $355 Multiplier: 4.55x | ROI: 355% APY not meaningful 76 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Mexico

Trade
16%
Yes 22¢No 89¢
11¢
$1,650
$3,420
0%
2%
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
limitless

Mexico

Trade
N/A
N/A
99.7¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
16%
Yes 22¢No 89¢
Avg: 55.4¢Max: 99.7¢
polymarket

Israel

Trade
13%
1%
Yes 15¢No 89¢
4¢
$12,645
$851
0%
16%
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
limitless

Israel

Trade
N/A
N/A
93.6¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
13%
Yes 15¢No 89¢
Avg: 48.8¢Max: 93.6¢
polymarket

Canada

Trade
13%
1%
Yes 17¢No 92¢
9¢
$3,055
$24,128
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
limitless

Canada

Trade
N/A
N/A
11.4¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
12.5%
Yes 17¢No 92¢
Avg: 10.2¢Max: 11.4¢
polymarket

Vietnam

Trade
11%
5%
Yes 11.9¢No 90¢
1.9¢
$14,512
$10,471
2%
2%
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
polymarket

Russia

Trade
11%
1%
Yes 14¢No 93¢
7¢
$12,293
$2,479
0%
1%
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
polymarket

Pakistan

Trade
10%
2%
Yes 14¢No 94¢
8¢
$1,537
$105,718
0%
0.01%
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
polymarket

Australia

Trade
10%
Yes 14¢No 94¢
8¢
$1,699
$6,398
0%
2%
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
polymarket

United Kingdom

Trade
11%
Yes 13¢No 92¢
5¢
$11,365
$649
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
kalshi

United Kingdom

Trade
8%
Yes 11¢No 95¢
6¢
N/A
$180
0%
43%
$63
2mo 2w 2d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
10%
Yes 12¢No 93.5¢
Avg: 5.5¢Max: 6¢
polymarket

Taiwan

Trade
10%
Yes 12.7¢No 93.4¢
6.1¢
$3,491
$35,215
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
disputed
polymarket

India

Trade
10%
Yes 11¢No 92¢
3¢
$14,081
$71,692
0%
0.55%
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
kalshi

India

Trade
7%
1%
Yes 11¢No 93¢
4¢
N/A
$1,319
3%
7%
$584
2mo 2w 2d
active
limitless

India

Trade
N/A
N/A
7¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
9.5%
Yes 11¢No 92.5¢
Avg: 4.7¢Max: 7¢
polymarket

South Korea

Trade
9%
Yes 11.7¢No 92.9¢
4.6¢
$14,760
$60,875
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
kalshi

Taiwan

Trade
9%
Yes 9¢No 96¢
5¢
N/A
$945
0%
1%
$130
2mo 2w 2d
active
polymarket

Indonesia

Trade
9%
Yes 11¢No 94¢
5¢
$13,591
$19,920
0%
0.39%
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
kalshi

Indonesia

Trade
4%
Yes 9¢No 97¢
6¢
N/A
$309
0%
21%
$53
2mo 2w 2d
active
limitless

Indonesia

Trade
N/A
N/A
8.9¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
8.4%
Yes 10¢No 95.5¢
Avg: 6.6¢Max: 8.9¢
polymarket

Argentina

Trade
8%
Yes 11¢No 95¢
6¢
$2,031
$23,023
0%
0.22%
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
kalshi

Argentina

Trade
6%
Yes 14¢No 94¢
8¢
N/A
$4,649
0.11%
0.27%
$2,466
2mo 2w 2d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
7.7%
Yes 12.5¢No 94.5¢
Avg: 7¢Max: 8¢
polymarket

South Africa

Trade
8%
1%
Yes 10¢No 95¢
5¢
$12,014
$614
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
polymarket

European Union

Trade
7%
Yes 8.5¢No 94.1¢
2.6¢
$11,995
$13,480
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
7.2%
Yes 8.5¢No 94.1¢
Avg: 2.6¢Max: 2.6¢
Total markets: 25 of 31

Intro

This market tracks the likelihood of the United States entering into new free trade agreements with specific countries before 2027. Currently, the consensus probability of the U.S. agreeing to a new trade deal with Mexico before 2027 is 16.0%, while the probability of a deal with Israel is 15.0%. This aggregated view combines data from Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless, with resolution determined by a consensus of credible reporting regarding agreements becoming law in the United States. Keep an eye on the Senate’s legislative schedule, as any votes on trade agreements before December 31, 2026, will be a key signal for resolution.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Different platforms offer markets for different countries, creating a scope divergence.Hero tip: Focus on the countries available on your chosen platform. A 'Yes' resolution on one platform doesn't guarantee a 'Yes' on another.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: A 'Yes' resolves if a free trade agreement with the specified country becomes law in the US by December 31, 2026, through Senate ratification or a Congressional-Executive Agreement. "This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President."
  • Kalshi: A 'Yes' resolves if a free trade agreement with the specified country becomes law in the US before January 1, 2027, through Senate ratification or a Congressional-Executive Agreement. "If a free trade deal with [country] has become law, either through Senate ratification and Presidential approval or through Congressional-Executive Agreement and the signature of the President (or at least, signing the implementing legislation) after Issuance before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Kalshi

A trade deal with any specified country resolves to Yes if it becomes law through one of two mechanisms: (1) Senate ratification followed by Presidential approval, or (2) Congressional-Executive Agreement followed by Presidential signature of the implementing legislation. The deal must be newly negotiated and become legally binding after market issuance but before January 1, 2027. Both pathways require formal Presidential action to finalize the agreement into law. The resolution criteria are identical across all countries, with each country's market operating independently based on whether its respective trade agreement meets these legal requirements by the deadline.

Limitless

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, the Trump trade deals market dashboard tracks the probability of Donald Trump securing new trade agreements with various countries before Jan 1, 2027. Currently, this market aggregates data from both platforms, showing a combined volume of $415,837 and 24-hour volume of $252. The consensus view, while differing slightly between venues, provides a comprehensive look at predictions regarding potential trade deals during this period. This dashboard allows users to monitor shifts in sentiment and potential outcomes as new information emerges. The short_topic provides a focused view of this predictive landscape.

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. Polls capture stated preferences, while this market reflects what individuals are willing to *stake* on an outcome. This difference can lead to divergences, particularly when dealing with complex events like trade negotiations where information asymmetry is high. While polls can indicate public opinion, this market can reveal a more nuanced assessment of the likelihood of specific countries reaching agreements with the former president. It’s a valuable tool for understanding not just *what* people think, but *what they believe will happen*.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. These platforms have different user bases, trading volumes, and liquidity, all of which influence price discovery. Additionally, the specific framing of the market – the exact wording of the question and available outcomes – can impact how traders interpret the event. Currently, Polymarket currently favors U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027? at 16.0%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Trump make a new before Jan 1, 2027? at 9.0%. These differences highlight the dynamic nature of prediction markets and the importance of considering multiple sources of information.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on whether former President Trump has publicly announced and signed new trade deals with any countries before that date. The details of these agreements will be assessed based on widely available information from government sources and reputable news organizations. The focus is on finalized, legally binding agreements, not preliminary discussions or intentions. This ensures a clear and objective determination of the outcome.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major announcements regarding trade negotiations from the former president’s team would be a primary driver. Unexpected geopolitical events or shifts in international relations could also influence trader sentiment. Economic data releases from potential partner countries, particularly those related to trade balances and economic growth, could also play a role. Finally, any official statements from governments regarding trade talks or agreements would likely cause a rapid adjustment in the odds. Monitoring these factors will be key to understanding the evolution of this market before Jan 1, 2027.