TOTAL VOLUME:

$116.7b

24H VOL:

$99,401,033

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,177,208,320

335,484

Markets across

33,267

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,184

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
Politics
limitless
kalshi
polymarket

Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

Total volume:
$395,473
Volume 24h:
$2,304
1,343%
Liquidity:
$148,752
197%
Open interest:
$3,306
5%

Canada

all

2 markets

Polymarket

20%

Limitless

N/A

consensus

20%

-4.4%

spread

20-20%

(0pp)

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Aug 20

Aug 21

Aug 22

Aug 23

Aug 24

Aug 26

Aug 27

Vol.

$3.7k

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?

18%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 20¢ buys you 500 shares | Odds: 18% Total Payout: $500 | Net Profit: $400 Multiplier: 5.00x | ROI: 400% APY not meaningful 125 days to resolution
limitless

Trade on Limitless

At 22.4¢ buys you 446 shares | Odds: 0% Total Payout: $446 | Net Profit: $346 Multiplier: 4.46x | ROI: 346% High Projected APY: 7,268% 127 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
MUI X License key version mismatch
Total markets: 25 of 31

Description

This group of markets tracks whether Donald Trump will negotiate and sign new free trade agreements with specific countries or entities before the end of 2026, assuming he is elected president in 2024.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms use identical criteria for what constitutes a 'new trade deal' and the same deadline of January 1, 2027.Primary resolution logic: Consensus of credible reporting (major news outlets, official government announcements)

Core resolution logic:

  • A market resolves to 'Yes' if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by January 1, 2027
  • Becoming law means either Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President
  • The agreement must be enacted after the market issuance date

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Post-election signing: If Trump is elected in November 2024 but the agreement is signed into law in early 2025, it still counts as long as it's before January 1, 2027
  • Partial agreements: Agreements that modify existing trade relationships but don't create entirely new frameworks still count if they result in new binding commitments
Timing: Resolution occurs on January 1, 2027, or 24 hours after the last possible signing date if no agreement has been enacted by thenOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Kalshi

A trade deal with any specified country resolves to Yes if it becomes law through one of two mechanisms: (1) Senate ratification followed by Presidential approval, or (2) Congressional-Executive Agreement followed by Presidential signature of the implementing legislation. The deal must be newly negotiated and become legally binding after market issuance but before January 1, 2027. Both pathways require formal Presidential action to finalize the agreement into law. The resolution criteria are identical across all countries, with each country's market operating independently based on whether its respective trade agreement meets these legal requirements by the deadline.

Limitless

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

The Trump trade deals market dashboard aggregates real-time data from multiple platforms, showing how traders price the likelihood of new trade agreements before Jan 1, 2027. It displays total volume of $395,339 and 24-hour volume of $1,202, letting you see market momentum and consensus. This view lets you monitor shifts in expectations as political and economic signals emerge, with outcomes drawn from verified public reporting.

Prediction market odds on this market reflect trader sentiment weighted by financial commitment, often diverging from traditional polling averages. While polls capture broad public opinion through sampling, market prices incorporate real-money bets that respond quickly to news, policy whispers, and economic indicators. Because traders can profit from accurate forecasts, odds can signal sharper or more nuanced expectations than polls, especially on complex policy outcomes like trade negotiations.

On Polymarket and Kalshi, prices can vary due to differences in user base, liquidity, and market design. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For instance, one platform might attract more politically active traders, skewing its odds toward U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? at 18.0%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Trump make a new before Jan 1, 2027? at 17.0%. Liquidity gaps or regional participation can also widen the spread between the two venues.

Key signals that could shift this market include major economic announcements, policy speeches from the administration, geopolitical tensions affecting trade routes, or bilateral summit outcomes. Each new development that hints at negotiation momentum — or roadblocks — can cause rapid re-pricing. Traders will also watch legislative updates and market reactions that reflect changing expectations about deal feasibility before Jan 1, 2027.