TOTAL VOLUME:
$97.5b
24H VOL:
$264,423,826
24H TRANSACTIONS:
951,878,243
OPEN INTEREST:
$2,171,275,957
831,219
Markets across
15,133
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
973
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
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If Clavicular, otherwise known as Braden Peters, visits a listed country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Clavicular physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Clavicular enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. For the purposes of this market, "China" includes all territory administered by the People's Republic of China, including Special Administrative Regions, excluding Taiwan. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If Clavicular, otherwise known as Braden Peters, visits a listed country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Clavicular physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Clavicular enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. For the purposes of this market, "China" includes all territory administered by the People's Republic of China, including Special Administrative Regions, excluding Taiwan. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Prediction market odds reflect real-money incentives for accuracy, often diverging from traditional analyst forecasts or travel industry projections. While analysts may rely on historical travel patterns or public statements, this market aggregates the beliefs of many traders who face direct financial consequences for incorrect predictions. Comparing current odds to expert commentary or travel itineraries can reveal where the crowd sees higher or lower probability than conventional wisdom suggests. Such gaps sometimes signal emerging information or overlooked catalysts that may shift expectations before resolution.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader activity into real-time probability estimates for each destination. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome's price reflects the cumulative bets placed on it, with higher prices indicating stronger collective confidence. Traders can buy or sell shares at any time, and the pricing mechanism ensures that odds adjust dynamically as new positions enter the market. This continuous repricing helps surface the most up-to-date consensus about Clavicular's likely travel destinations.
This market resolves around Dec 31, 2026, after which the outcome is confirmed once Clavicular's 2026 travel destinations are verifiable from credible public sources. The resolution process identifies which countries were actually visited during the calendar year, and winning positions are paid out accordingly. Traders should monitor official announcements, travel records, and reliable reporting throughout 2026 to anticipate how the market may shift as the year progresses and destinations become confirmed or ruled out.
Major catalysts include public announcements of scheduled tours or trips, visa applications or travel permits, social media hints about upcoming plans, and confirmed bookings or appearances in specific regions. Cancellations or postponements of previously announced visits could also shift odds significantly. Media reports about Clavicular's availability, health, or professional commitments may influence trader expectations about feasibility. Additionally, geopolitical developments or travel restrictions in key countries could alter the likelihood of certain destinations being visited, prompting rapid repricing across the market.
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