TOTAL VOLUME:
$97.5b
24H VOL:
$262,573,226
24H TRANSACTIONS:
951,878,243
OPEN INTEREST:
$2,187,805,448
831,787
Markets across
15,132
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
964
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
Closed: Jul 16, 7:59 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of United Airlines currently scheduled to take place on July 16, 2026 at 10:30 AM EST. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by July 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be audio of the event. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of United Airlines currently scheduled to take place on July 16, 2026 at 10:30 AM EST. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by July 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be audio of the event. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Prediction market odds reflect real-money bets from traders with direct financial incentive to forecast accurately, often incorporating forward-looking sentiment that traditional analyst reports may lag. While equity research teams publish earnings previews and guidance expectations, this market aggregates distributed knowledge from participants actively trading on specific statements United Airlines executives are likely to emphasize. Comparing the two reveals whether professional consensus aligns with crowd-sourced prediction, and divergences can signal emerging market concerns or overlooked catalysts in the earnings narrative.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader positions into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome contract trades independently, with the price of a contract reflecting the crowd's collective belief in that statement occurring during the earnings call. Traders buy or sell shares at the displayed price, and the cumulative order flow continuously updates odds, ensuring the market reflects fresh information and sentiment as the event date approaches.
This market resolves around Jul 16, 2026, once United Airlines has completed its next earnings call and the statements made are verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome is determined by whether specific phrases or topics mentioned during the call match the conditions outlined for each prediction. Resolution occurs after sufficient time has passed for transcripts and official records to be reviewed, ensuring accuracy and preventing disputes over what was actually said.
Market odds will shift in response to United Airlines operational updates, fuel price movements, capacity announcements, and broader airline industry news that might influence what management emphasizes on the call. Quarterly financial results, competitor earnings, and macroeconomic data affecting travel demand can all reshape trader expectations about which topics will dominate discussion. Additionally, any pre-earnings guidance, investor presentations, or management commentary released before the call itself will likely trigger repricing as participants refine their forecasts based on fresh signals about executive priorities.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.