TOTAL VOLUME:
$97.4b
24H VOL:
$272,047,135
24H TRANSACTIONS:
951,878,243
OPEN INTEREST:
$2,154,433,863
830,920
Markets across
15,200
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
970
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
What will Trump say during the White House Correspondents' Dinner?
Time left: 09d:01h:16m
What will Donald Trump say during White House Correspondents' Dinner originally scheduled for July 24th, 2026?
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Description
This market tracks whether Donald Trump will say any of a specific set of phrases or topics during his remarks at the White House Correspondents' Dinner scheduled for July 24th, 2026. The phrases span Trump's characteristic speaking patterns, including references to political figures, policy issues, criticism of media and political opponents, and various other recurring themes in his rhetoric. If the dinner does not occur or Trump does not attend, the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by whether Donald Trump uses exact phrases or their plural/possessive forms during the White House Correspondents' Dinner originally scheduled for July 24th, 2026. The live broadcast or stream serves as the primary source, with official transcripts used if video consensus cannot be reached. Grammatical and tense inflections do not count as variations, though plural nouns within proper nouns and noun phrases are included. Previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings from separate times or events are excluded. Trump must speak in an official capacity; inaudible private conversations or unofficial statements do not qualify. If the event is cancelled or fails to qualify, all phrase markets resolve to No and the "Event does not qualify" market resolves to Yes. If postponed with announcement by the following calendar day to a date within 14 days, markets remain open.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, each potential statement or topic Trump might mention is priced as a separate binary contract. Traders buy or sell shares at prices between 0 and 100 cents, where the price reflects the implied probability of that outcome. Contracts that resolve YES pay $1; those that resolve NO pay nothing. The current top outcome on Kalshi shows market participants' best estimate of what Trump will emphasize or discuss during the dinner, with prices updating continuously as new trades execute.
This market resolves on Jul 25, 2026. Resolution is determined by what Trump actually says during the White House Correspondents' Dinner event. Each outcome contract settles based on whether the specified statement, topic, or remark was made during his remarks. The resolution process reviews official video, transcripts, and credible media reports to confirm which outcomes occurred. Traders should monitor the event closely and any official clarifications posted by the platform after the dinner concludes.
Market odds will likely shift based on Trump's recent public statements, social media posts, and campaign messaging leading up to the dinner. Major political developments—policy announcements, legislative votes, or news cycles—could influence which topics he prioritizes. His past remarks at similar events and any pre-dinner interviews or hints about his planned remarks will also drive trader positioning. Close to the event date, any leaked details or Trump's own promotional comments about what he plans to say could trigger sharp repricing of the top outcomes.
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