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What will Trump say during the White House Correspondents' Dinner?
kalshi

What will Trump say during the White House Correspondents' Dinner?

Volume:
$4,640,357

Fake News

 - Kalshi

Fake News - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 25, 2026

Closed: Jul 25, 12:40 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Fake News

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$174,374
N/A
N/A
$120,642
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Iran (3+ times)

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$146,716
N/A
N/A
$77,241
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Oil

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$122,983
N/A
N/A
$79,995
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Barack Hussein Obama

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$121,926
N/A
N/A
$80,293
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Israel / Israeli

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$96,354
N/A
N/A
$56,506
Settled
Yes
kalshi

China

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$93,236
N/A
N/A
$52,762
Settled
Yes
kalshi

250

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$91,987
N/A
N/A
$59,248
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Dumbocrat / Dumacrat

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$91,229
N/A
N/A
$61,542
Settled
Yes
kalshi

TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$81,134
N/A
N/A
$53,581
Settled
Yes
kalshi

MAGA / Make America Great Again

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$79,349
N/A
N/A
$44,186
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Ballroom

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$78,816
N/A
N/A
$54,686
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Newsom / Newscum

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$75,531
N/A
N/A
$52,847
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Hottest

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$64,942
N/A
N/A
$47,670
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Kamala

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$59,947
N/A
N/A
$43,297
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Comedy / Comedian

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$53,773
N/A
N/A
$36,743
Settled
Yes
kalshi

UFC

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$41,810
N/A
N/A
$33,115
Settled
Yes
kalshi

IQ / Genius

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$39,331
N/A
N/A
$29,361
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Biden

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$27,856
N/A
N/A
$22,651
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Democrat

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$22,619
N/A
N/A
$18,965
Settled
Yes
kalshi

AI / Artificial Intelligence

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$398,491
N/A
N/A
$214,802
Settled
No
kalshi

Epstein

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$367,682
N/A
N/A
$225,749
Settled
No
kalshi

Crypto / Bitcoin

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$330,553
N/A
N/A
$248,455
Settled
No
kalshi

Movie Star

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$197,494
N/A
N/A
$176,519
Settled
No
kalshi

Event does not qualify

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$184,821
N/A
N/A
$155,331
Settled
No
kalshi

World Cup

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$151,280
N/A
N/A
$108,299
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 45

Intro

This market tracks whether Donald Trump will mention specific phrases or topics during his remarks at the White House Correspondents' Dinner scheduled for July 24th, 2026, on Kalshi, with resolution based on his actual speech content. The current probability for the leading outcome is 1.0%, and the second outcome stands at 1.0%. Watch for any statements made by Trump during the dinner on July 24th, 2026, as they will directly determine the market's resolution.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by whether Donald Trump uses exact phrases or their plural/possessive forms during the White House Correspondents' Dinner originally scheduled for July 24th, 2026. The live broadcast or stream serves as the primary source, with official transcripts used if video consensus cannot be reached. Grammatical and tense inflections do not count as variations, though plural nouns within proper nouns and noun phrases are included. Previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings from separate times or events are excluded. Trump must speak in an official capacity; inaudible private conversations or unofficial statements do not qualify. If the event is cancelled or fails to qualify, all phrase markets resolve to No and the "Event does not qualify" market resolves to Yes. If postponed with announcement by the following calendar day to a date within 14 days, markets remain open.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money bets from traders who profit or lose based on accuracy, creating strong incentives for honest pricing. Analyst forecasts, by contrast, often rely on subjective judgment and may lag market data. The market odds for this event tend to incorporate breaking news and shifts in Trump's public statements faster than traditional analyst consensus. Comparing the two can reveal where professional opinion diverges from trader conviction on what Trump will say at the dinner.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, each potential statement or topic Trump might mention is priced as a separate binary contract. Traders buy or sell shares at prices between 0 and 100 cents, where the price reflects the implied probability of that outcome. Contracts that resolve YES pay $1; those that resolve NO pay nothing. The current top outcome on Kalshi shows market participants' best estimate of what Trump will emphasize or discuss during the dinner, with prices updating continuously as new trades execute.

This market resolves on Jul 25, 2026. Resolution is determined by what Trump actually says during the White House Correspondents' Dinner event. Each outcome contract settles based on whether the specified statement, topic, or remark was made during his remarks. The resolution process reviews official video, transcripts, and credible media reports to confirm which outcomes occurred. Traders should monitor the event closely and any official clarifications posted by the platform after the dinner concludes.

Market odds will likely shift based on Trump's recent public statements, social media posts, and campaign messaging leading up to the dinner. Major political developments—policy announcements, legislative votes, or news cycles—could influence which topics he prioritizes. His past remarks at similar events and any pre-dinner interviews or hints about his planned remarks will also drive trader positioning. Close to the event date, any leaked details or Trump's own promotional comments about what he plans to say could trigger sharp repricing of the top outcomes.