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What will Tesla say during their next earnings call?
kalshi

What will Tesla say during their next earnings call?

Volume:
$272,463

Robotaxi

 - Kalshi

Robotaxi - Kalshi

1W

News

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Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 22, 2026

Closed: Jul 22, 6:45 PM EST

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Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Robotaxi

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$22,973
N/A
N/A
$18,986
3mo 1d
Yes
kalshi

Grok (3+ times)

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$19,599
N/A
N/A
$12,092
3mo 1d
Yes
kalshi

Tariff

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$12,791
N/A
N/A
$5,477
3mo 1d
Yes
kalshi

Terafab

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$12,069
N/A
N/A
$5,602
3mo 1d
Yes
kalshi

Cybercab

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$11,726
N/A
N/A
$8,914
3mo 1d
Yes
kalshi

Affordable

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$9,497
N/A
N/A
$7,345
3mo 1d
Yes
kalshi

SpaceX / xAI

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8,462
N/A
N/A
$3,845
3mo 1d
Yes
kalshi

Safety Monitor

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8,063
N/A
N/A
$5,583
3mo 1d
Yes
kalshi

Supercharger / Super Charger

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,367
N/A
N/A
$4,937
3mo 1d
Yes
kalshi

Semi

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,928
N/A
N/A
$4,180
3mo 1d
Yes
kalshi

Regulator / Regulatory / Regulation

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,877
N/A
N/A
$3,978
3mo 1d
Yes
kalshi

Megapack 3

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,742
N/A
N/A
$4,388
3mo 1d
Yes
kalshi

Competition

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,801
N/A
N/A
$2,911
3mo 1d
Yes
kalshi

Cybertruck

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$27,386
N/A
N/A
$22,603
3mo 1d
No
kalshi

Merge / Merger

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25,283
N/A
N/A
$14,700
3mo 1d
No
kalshi

China

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11,853
N/A
N/A
$8,544
3mo 1d
No
kalshi

Six-Seater / Six-Seat

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10,367
N/A
N/A
$4,471
3mo 1d
No
kalshi

Miami

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,637
N/A
N/A
$4,344
3mo 1d
No
kalshi

Roadster

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,545
N/A
N/A
$4,819
3mo 1d
No
kalshi

Gigafactory

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,790
N/A
N/A
$5,491
3mo 1d
No
kalshi

Iran / Middle East

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,756
N/A
N/A
$4,931
3mo 1d
No
kalshi

Berlin

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,656
N/A
N/A
$4,353
3mo 1d
No
kalshi

Intel

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,491
N/A
N/A
$3,946
3mo 1d
No
kalshi

Waymo

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,815
N/A
N/A
$3,181
3mo 1d
No
kalshi

Powerwall

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,788
N/A
N/A
$3,761
3mo 1d
No
Total markets: 25 of 27

Description

Tesla executives will discuss the company's business performance, strategy, and operations during their quarterly earnings call on July 22, 2026. The call includes prepared remarks followed by a question-and-answer session with analysts and investors.

Kalshi

This event tracks whether Tesla representatives mention any of 22 specific terms during their next earnings call. Resolvable terms span Tesla's product lines (Cybertruck, Roadster, Semi, Powerwall, Megapack 3, Supercharger), manufacturing infrastructure (Gigafactory, Terafab), autonomous technology (Robotaxi), energy products (Safety Monitor), business strategy (Competition, Affordable, Merger), geographic markets (Miami, China, Europe, Iran/Middle East), regulatory matters (Regulator/Regulatory/Regulation), tariffs, and other corporate initiatives (SpaceX/xAI, Grok mentioned 3+ times, Six-Seater/Six-Seat). Resolution uses video of the earnings call as the primary source, with transcripts from major news publications as backup if consensus cannot be reached. Exact phrase matches are required, including plural or possessive forms, though grammatical and tense variations are permitted.

Frequently asked questions

The Tesla earnings call market dashboard on Kalshi tracks real-time odds and trading activity around what Tesla will announce during their next earnings call. This market aggregates trader positions and price movements, showing the current probability assigned to the top outcome alongside historical price trends and 24-hour volume data. The dashboard reflects live consensus from participants wagering on specific statements or topics Tesla leadership may address, helping traders monitor shifting sentiment as new information emerges before the call takes place.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they reflect real-money incentives and continuous price discovery rather than periodic published estimates. While equity analysts issue earnings previews and guidance ranges, this market prices in trader expectations about what will actually be said on the call. Prediction markets tend to incorporate breaking news and market sentiment faster than formal analyst reports, making them a complementary signal for investors seeking near-term conviction on corporate messaging.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell shares representing different outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring, with the price ranging from near zero to near one dollar. Traders profit by correctly predicting what Tesla will say, and the market price adjusts in real time as new positions are placed, reflecting the collective belief of all active participants on the platform.

This market resolves around Dec 30, 2026, once Tesla's earnings call has concluded and the company's statements are verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by comparing what was actually said during the call against the specific prediction being wagered on. Resolution occurs after sufficient time has passed for the call transcript and official communications to be published and reviewed, ensuring accuracy before payouts are finalized.

Key catalysts include Tesla's quarterly financial results released before the call, macroeconomic shifts affecting automotive demand, regulatory announcements, competitive product launches, and Elon Musk's public statements on social media or at conferences. Supply chain updates, energy market developments, and geopolitical events can also shift trader expectations about what management will emphasize. As the call date approaches, leaked guidance, analyst downgrades or upgrades, and stock price movements typically drive increased trading volume and price adjustments in this market.