TOTAL VOLUME:
$97.5b
24H VOL:
$262,573,226
24H TRANSACTIONS:
951,878,243
OPEN INTEREST:
$2,187,805,448
831,787
Markets across
15,132
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
964
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
What will Intel say during their next earnings call?
What will Intel Corporation say during their next earnings call?
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Description
Intel executives will discuss the company's financial results, strategic initiatives, and market position during their quarterly earnings call on July 23, 2026. The call includes management presentations followed by an interactive question-and-answer session.
Kalshi
This event tracks whether Intel representatives mention any of 15 specific terms during their next earnings call. Resolvable terms include competitive references (Apple, Nvidia), government and policy matters (Government, Trump, Tariff), manufacturing and product lines (Arizona, Panther Lake/18A, Desktop, Client Computing, Ultra 3/Ultra Series 3, Foundry), security, business divisions (Mobileye), partnerships (Siemens), and shareholder returns (Dividend). Resolution uses video of the earnings call as the primary source, with transcripts from major news publications as backup if consensus cannot be reached. Exact phrase matches are required, including plural or possessive forms, though grammatical and tense variations are permitted.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds reflect real-money trader conviction and often diverge from traditional analyst consensus. While sell-side analysts publish earnings estimates and guidance ranges based on financial models, this market prices what Intel will actually say—a forward-looking, crowd-sourced probability. Analysts may forecast revenue or earnings per share, but traders here are betting on specific statements or announcements. The market can move ahead of analyst revisions when new information surfaces, making it a complementary signal to institutional research rather than a direct comparison.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing different outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome is quoted as a percentage probability between 0 and 100, with the price reflecting the collective assessment of what Intel will communicate. Traders profit by correctly predicting the outcome, and the bid-ask spread tightens as more volume flows through the market. Liquidity and recent trading activity influence how quickly prices adjust to breaking news or earnings-related developments.
This market resolves around Dec 30, 2026, once Intel's next earnings call has concluded and statements are verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome is determined by what Intel actually says during the call—whether specific topics are mentioned, guidance is raised or lowered, or particular strategic announcements are made. Resolution hinges on confirmed public disclosures, press releases, or official call transcripts rather than speculation or rumor. Traders should monitor Intel's investor relations calendar and earnings announcements to track the timing.
Several catalysts could shift odds before the earnings call. Quarterly financial results, product announcements, competitive developments, or macroeconomic data affecting semiconductor demand may influence trader expectations of what Intel will say. Management commentary in interviews, regulatory filings, or industry conferences can also signal likely talking points. Unexpected geopolitical or supply-chain events could prompt Intel to address new topics. Additionally, shifts in peer guidance or analyst revisions may reshape expectations about Intel's messaging, causing traders to adjust positions and move prices in this market.
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