TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit Week of July 6 2026?
kalshi
polymarket

What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit Week of July 6 2026?

Volume:
$308,431

above $4068

 - Kalshi

above $4068 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 10, 2026

Closed: Jul 8, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

above $4068

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$38,448
N/A
N/A
$21,260
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4038

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$18,325
N/A
N/A
$10,156
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4058

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$14,786
N/A
N/A
$9,258
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4008

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10,706
N/A
N/A
$8,554
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4048

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10,075
N/A
N/A
$4,279
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4028

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,795
N/A
N/A
$2,925
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↓ $4,100

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$4,429
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4018

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,624
N/A
N/A
$1,669
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3978

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,473
N/A
N/A
$1,708
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3928

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,365
N/A
N/A
$1,702
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3988

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,117
N/A
N/A
$1,272
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3998

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,642
N/A
N/A
$1,226
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3958

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,598
N/A
N/A
$1,138
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3968

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,448
N/A
N/A
$1,304
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3948

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,304
N/A
N/A
$1,304
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↓ $4,050

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,152
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↓ $4,150

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$437
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3938

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$348
N/A
N/A
$348
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↑ $4,200

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$90
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4078

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$59,826
N/A
N/A
$11,941
Settled
No
kalshi

above $4098

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$22,492
N/A
N/A
$11,553
Settled
No
kalshi

above $4088

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$19,273
N/A
N/A
$5,795
Settled
No
kalshi

above $4108

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$18,347
N/A
N/A
$11,695
Settled
No
kalshi

above $4118

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$16,614
N/A
N/A
$12,766
Settled
No
kalshi

above $4128

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,327
N/A
N/A
$4,278
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 54

Description

This event group tracks whether Gold (XAUUSD) will reach specific price levels during the week of July 6, 2026. Polymarket uses intraweek high/low touch methodology across all business days, while Kalshi uses a single point-in-time close price on July 8, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT. The markets measure fundamentally different resolution mechanics despite covering overlapping price ranges.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket uses intraweek high/low touch methodology (any 1-minute candle during the week of July 6), while Kalshi uses a single point-in-time close price on July 8, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT. These measure different market outcomes despite overlapping price ranges.Hero tip: Polymarket rewards intraweek volatility and price discovery; Kalshi rewards end-of-week settlement positioning. A gold spike to $4,200 on Monday resolves YES on Polymarket but NO on Kalshi if the July 8 close is below $4,200. Consider your volatility thesis when choosing platforms.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Intraweek touch-based resolution across all business days (Sunday 6 PM ET through Friday 5 PM ET). Resolves YES if any 1-minute candle high or low reaches or exceeds the threshold. Covers 16 markets: 7 HIGH thresholds ($4,500, $4,450, $4,400, $4,350, $4,300, $4,250, $4,200) and 8 LOW thresholds ($4,150, $4,100, $4,050, $4,000, $3,950, $3,900, $3,850). Source: Pyth 1-minute candles with CME COMEX GC futures as fallback.
  • Kalshi: Point-in-time close-based resolution on July 8, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT only. Resolves YES if the 1-minute candle close price is ABOVE the threshold. Covers 40 markets in $10 increments from $3,928 to $4,318. No intraweek touch logic; only the Wednesday close matters.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit Week of July 6 2026?

Kalshi

Settlement is determined by comparing the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on July 08, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT against multiple price thresholds ranging from $3,928 to $4,318 USD per troy ounce, each in $10 increments. Each threshold represents a separate binary outcome: if the settlement price exceeds the specified threshold, that outcome resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. The close price is defined as the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval (e.g., the candlestick timestamped 4:59 PM reflects trading from 4:59:00 PM to 4:59:59 PM and closes at 5:00:00 PM). All settlement values are rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places. If no data is published by the specified source agency for the exact settlement time, the most recently available published data will be used to resolve the market.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds distill real-money conviction into a single probability, whereas analyst forecasts often span a range or remain qualitative. Traders on this market are financially incentivized to price gold accurately, making their collective odds a forward-looking gauge of expected price action. Unlike surveys or reports, prediction markets update continuously as new data emerges, allowing them to react faster to economic data, central bank signals, or geopolitical shifts that influence precious metals.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform uses distinct contract specifications, settlement windows, and trader demographics. Polymarket may define the outcome at a different time or price point than Kalshi, creating genuine basis differences rather than pure arbitrage. Liquidity depth, fee structures, and regulatory frameworks also vary, so traders on one venue may demand different odds to reflect their platform's unique risks and mechanics.

Federal Reserve policy announcements, inflation data, and US dollar strength are primary drivers of gold price expectations. Geopolitical tensions, central bank purchases or sales, and real interest rate shifts also influence precious metals demand. Market participants monitor these catalysts closely, repricing positions as new information arrives. Unexpected economic weakness or safe-haven demand spikes can rapidly shift trader conviction on whether gold will breach the predicted levels by the resolution date.