TOTAL VOLUME:
$97.5b
24H VOL:
$262,573,226
24H TRANSACTIONS:
951,878,243
OPEN INTEREST:
$2,187,805,448
831,787
Markets across
15,132
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
964
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
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VS.
Kalshi:
55%
What will Bernie say during his Minneapolis Rally?
Time left: 18d:20h:33m
What will Bernie Sanders say during The Many Over the Money Rally?
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Description
Bernie Sanders will speak at The Many Over the Money Rally in Minneapolis, a live televised or streamed event open to the press. Resolution will be determined by analyzing video of the rally, with official transcripts used as backup if video consensus cannot be reached among Kalshi employees.
Kalshi
The event tracks whether Bernie Sanders mentions specific words or phrases during his official remarks at The Many Over the Money Rally in Minneapolis. Resolution is based on the exact word or phrase being spoken, including plural or possessive forms, with grammatical and tense inflections otherwise excluded. Plural nouns within proper nouns and noun phrases are included. Only the live broadcast or stream qualifies for resolution; previously aired content, archival footage, or recordings from separate times or places do not count. The event must be open to the press and televised or streamed live. Bernie Sanders must speak in an official capacity—inaudible private conversations or unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic do not qualify. Video evidence is the primary resolution source, with official transcripts used if Kalshi employees cannot reach consensus from video alone. If the event is cancelled or fails to qualify, all markets resolve to No and the "Event does not qualify" market resolves to Yes. If postponed with announcement by the end of the following calendar day to a date within 14 calendar days, markets remain open.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they aggregate real-money bets from many participants rather than relying on a single expert opinion. In this market, traders are financially incentivized to accurately predict which statements will be made, creating a decentralized information mechanism. Analyst forecasts may lag behind market prices when new developments emerge, while prediction markets can adjust instantly as participants trade. Comparing the odds here to public polling or expert commentary reveals how confident the betting community is relative to conventional wisdom about the event's likely outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through continuous order-book trading, where buyers and sellers submit bids and offers for each outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome share reflects the marginal trade—the last transaction executed—and ranges from 0 to 100 cents, representing implied probability. As new information surfaces or sentiment shifts, traders adjust their orders, causing prices to move in real time. Tighter spreads between bid and ask prices indicate higher confidence and liquidity around a particular statement outcome.
This market resolves around Aug 4, 2026, once the rally has concluded and statements can be verified. The outcome is determined by comparing what was actually said during the event against the predefined statement options available for trading. Credible public reporting—including video footage, official transcripts, or reputable news coverage—will be used to confirm which statements were made. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome receive their winnings, while incorrect positions expire worthless.
Several factors could shift odds before the rally occurs. Recent public statements or policy announcements from the candidate may increase or decrease the likelihood of certain topics being addressed. News cycles, political developments, or trending social media discussions can signal which issues will dominate the event. As the rally date draws closer, updated schedules or promotional materials may hint at focus areas. Additionally, changes in broader political sentiment or unexpected events could alter trader expectations about which statements will be prioritized during the Minneapolis appearance.
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