TOTAL VOLUME:
$116.7b
24H VOL:
$103,238,539
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,362,287,844
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,173,199,778
338,330
Markets across
33,339
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,209
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?
Don't Say Good Luck
all
2 markets
Kalshi
100%
Polymarket
100%
consensus
100%
spread
100-100%
(0pp)
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Aug 20
Aug 20
Aug 21
Aug 23
Aug 24
Aug 25
Aug 27
Vol.
$52.6k
·
Resolves Aug 25, 2026
Closed: Aug 24, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event group tracks which movie will rank #1 on the US Netflix Top 10 Movies list for the week ending August 25, 2026. Markets resolve based on Netflix's official ranking published on top10.netflix.com.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All platforms resolve based on the same data source and ranking methodology with only minor naming differencesPrimary resolution logic: Netflix Top 10 US Movies chart at top10.netflix.com published on August 25, 2026Core resolution logic:
- Check Netflix Top 10 US Movies chart on August 25, 2026
- If listed movie is #1, resolve corresponding market to Yes
- If another movie is #1, resolve all listed markets to No and Polymarket "Other" market to Yes
- For Polymarket ties, resolve based on alphabetical order of movie titles
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Chart Delay: If Netflix fails to publish the chart by August 28, 2026, Polymarket resolves "Other" to Yes while Kalshi markets remain pending until chart publication
- Title Variation: Markets with slightly different titles (e.g., "Don’t Say Good Luck" vs "Don't Say Good Luck") are considered the same movie for resolution purposes
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix movie. If multiple movies tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the movie whose listed title comes first alphabetically. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Kalshi
Each market resolves based on whether a specified movie occupies the #1 position on the Netflix Top 10 US Movie chart published on August 25, 2026. The chart reflects viewer engagement for the week ending the previous Sunday. All markets share identical secondary rules regarding chart update timing and disclaimers stating that Netflix has not endorsed these markets or products. The resolution hinges solely on the chart's ranking at the specified publication date, with no additional performance or eligibility criteria applied beyond chart position.
Frequently asked questions
This market resolves around Aug 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winner is determined by the movie that holds the top spot on Netflix's US rankings during the specified week, as reported by reliable entertainment news sources and streaming analytics firms.
Several signals could shift probabilities in this market before it settles. Major marketing pushes, star endorsements, or surprise releases may boost a film's ranking. Conversely, negative buzz or technical issues could hurt its performance. Weekly viewing trends and platform-specific recommendations also play a role, with sudden spikes in viewership often prompting rapid adjustments in market odds.
