TOTAL VOLUME:
$116.7b
24H VOL:
$103,238,539
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,362,287,844
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,173,199,778
338,330
Markets across
33,339
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,209
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
Outer Banks: Season 5
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Aug 25, 2026
Closed: Aug 24, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Conversations with a Killer: The Charles Manson Tapes: Season 1
Conversations with a Killer: The Charles Manson Tapes: Season 1
The Idaho Murders: College Nightmare: Season 1
Description
This event group tracks which show will rank #1 on Netflix's global Top 10 TV shows list for the week ending August 25, 2026. Multiple prediction markets across different platforms are tracking this outcome with varying question formats and resolution rules.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All markets resolve based on the same primary data source - Netflix's official global Top 10 TV shows list published on August 25, 2026Primary resolution logic: Netflix official Top 10 TV shows list at top10.netflix.comCore resolution logic:
- The official Netflix Top 10 Global TV Shows list published on August 25, 2026 determines the resolution
- Any market specifying a particular show resolves to Yes if that show is ranked #1 on the list
- If multiple markets specify different shows, each resolves independently based on their specific show’s ranking
- Polymarket specifies that in case of a tie for #1, the show that comes first alphabetically wins
- Kalshi markets resolve to Yes only if their specified show is ranked exactly #1 - ties would resolve to No
- If the Netflix Top 10 list is not published by August 28, 2026, Polymarket's 'Outer Banks' market resolves to Other
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Tie for #1: Polymarket uses alphabetical order to break ties; Kalshi markets would resolve to No as they require exact #1 ranking
- Missing Data: Only Polymarket's Outer Banks market has a specific fallback rule (resolves to Other); Kalshi markets would remain unresolved if the list isn't published by the deadline
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #1 global Netflix show. If multiple shows tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the show whose listed title comes first alphabetically. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for TV shows (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Kalshi
The event determines the highest-ranked global Netflix show for the week ending the Sunday before August 25, 2026, based on the chart published on August 25, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific show, and resolution occurs if that show occupies the #1 position on the Netflix Top 10 Global Show chart for that week. All markets share identical secondary rules: Netflix charts update on Tuesdays, so markets close at 11:59 PM ET the Monday before the chart publication date. Importantly, these markets and products are not endorsed by Netflix; any references to Netflix are purely descriptive and do not imply affiliation or endorsement. The outcome for each market is binary—Yes if the specified show is #1, No otherwise—making this a straightforward test of real-time viewership performance across Netflix's global audience.
Frequently asked questions
This market resolves around Aug 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The week’s top global Netflix show will be determined by official Netflix viewing statistics, and the market will close based on that data.
Several signals could shift this market before it closes on Aug 25, 2026. Major marketing campaigns, award nominations, or surprise releases often cause rapid changes in viewer interest. Platform-specific events like exclusive content drops or recommendations may also sway outcomes. Additionally, competing entertainment news or cultural moments can redirect audience attention, impacting weekly viewership statistics. Traders should watch for any announcements or trends that might alter the competitive landscape for the top Netflix show market in the coming weeks.
