TOTAL VOLUME:
$142.3b
24H VOL:
$107,419,736
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,643,541,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,594,026,835
471,138
Markets across
35,775
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,926
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
No migration in 2026
- Predict
No migration in 2026 - Predict
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Vol.
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Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Latest in Crypto
Will Polymarket not migrate in 2026?
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Description
Why: This is a market to determine the blockchain where the core Polymarket product will reside after it migrates. Polymarket has stated their intention to migrate to a chain other than Polygon in the past. This market will resolve according to the blockchain where the main Polymarket product migrates to in 2026. In order for a blockchain to qualify as the chain where Polymarket migrates to, three requirements are necessary: 1. Polymarket officially announces the migration is live (via a press release or X post by either Shayne Coplan or the official Polymarket Twitter account). 2. At least one non-test trade from the main Polymarket product happens on the new blockchain. 3. The L1 blockchain under which it operates must not be Polygon. "New Polymarket Chain" means a blockchain, rollup, appchain, L2, L3, or similar execution environment that previous to the Polymarket migration has not operated in production or been publicly announced for future release. If Polymarket announces a migration to multiple chains at the same time, this market will resolve to the chain Polymarket designates as the primary chain. If no primary chain is designated, it will resolve to the blockchain where the majority of transactions are settled over the first week after its launch. If Polymarket moves to an existing L2, L3, rollup, appchain, subchain, or similar execution environment that is not listed as an outcome and does not qualify as a New Polymarket Chain, this market will resolve to its parent chain if that parent chain is listed as an outcome. If no parent chain listed as an outcome applies, this market will resolve to “Other blockchain”. Some examples to illustrate how this market would resolve under different circumstances: - Existing subchain of Avalanche: this market would resolve to “Avalanche”. - New subchain in Avalanche that didn’t exist prior to the migration: this market would resolve to “New Polymarket chain” - Test trades without announcement: Test trades happen on the new chain but Polymarket doesn’t explicitly announce the migration is live before 2027. In this case, the market would resolve as “No migration in 2026” since this is one of the three requirements. If Polymarket does not migrate to a blockchain other than Polygon before December 31st 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No migration in 2026”.
Predict
Why: This is a market to determine the blockchain where the core Polymarket product will reside after it migrates. Polymarket has stated their intention to migrate to a chain other than Polygon in the past. This market will resolve according to the blockchain where the main Polymarket product migrates to in 2026. In order for a blockchain to qualify as the chain where Polymarket migrates to, three requirements are necessary: 1. Polymarket officially announces the migration is live (via a press release or X post by either Shayne Coplan or the official Polymarket Twitter account). 2. At least one non-test trade from the main Polymarket product happens on the new blockchain. 3. The L1 blockchain under which it operates must not be Polygon. "New Polymarket Chain" means a blockchain, rollup, appchain, L2, L3, or similar execution environment that previous to the Polymarket migration has not operated in production or been publicly announced for future release. If Polymarket announces a migration to multiple chains at the same time, this market will resolve to the chain Polymarket designates as the primary chain. If no primary chain is designated, it will resolve to the blockchain where the majority of transactions are settled over the first week after its launch. If Polymarket moves to an existing L2, L3, rollup, appchain, subchain, or similar execution environment that is not listed as an outcome and does not qualify as a New Polymarket Chain, this market will resolve to its parent chain if that parent chain is listed as an outcome. If no parent chain listed as an outcome applies, this market will resolve to “Other blockchain”. Some examples to illustrate how this market would resolve under different circumstances: - Existing subchain of Avalanche: this market would resolve to “Avalanche”. - New subchain in Avalanche that didn’t exist prior to the migration: this market would resolve to “New Polymarket chain” - Test trades without announcement: Test trades happen on the new chain but Polymarket doesn’t explicitly announce the migration is live before 2027. In this case, the market would resolve as “No migration in 2026” since this is one of the three requirements. If Polymarket does not migrate to a blockchain other than Polygon before December 31st 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No migration in 2026”.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a relatively low probability of Polymarket migrating to a new chain in 2026, with 87.1% believing they will not migrate. This contrasts with general expectations surrounding blockchain innovation, where frequent upgrades and migrations are common. However, Polymarket’s specific situation—its established user base and regulatory considerations—may contribute to this cautious outlook. It's important to remember that prediction market odds reflect a collective forecast, and may differ from individual analyst predictions or spot price expectations for related assets.
On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each outcome. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of each chain being selected. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates what traders are willing to pay for exposure to a particular outcome, and it adjusts dynamically based on supply and demand. This creates a real-time assessment of the likelihood of each scenario, driven by the collective intelligence of the market participants.
This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the chain Polymarket officially migrates to is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on Polymarket’s official announcement regarding their chosen blockchain for the 2026 migration. Any changes or delays to the announced migration timeline will be considered when determining the final outcome of this market. Traders should monitor official Polymarket communications for updates leading up to the resolution date.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major announcements from Polymarket regarding their migration plans, technological developments in competing blockchains, or shifts in the regulatory landscape surrounding decentralized prediction markets could all influence trader sentiment. Unexpected security vulnerabilities or scalability issues with potential target chains could also drive price movements. Furthermore, significant partnerships or integrations announced by Polymarket could signal a preference for a specific blockchain, potentially shifting the odds in that direction.
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