TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$230,557,910
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,202,344,730
501,342
Markets across
13,602
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,822
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Total volume:
$93,547,670
Volume 24h:
$104,921
21%
Liquidity:
$1,557,614
13%
Open interest:
$1,165,488
0.12%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
These markets ask who will officially hold the position of head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026. Both platforms resolve based on the individual formally appointed, confirmed, and sworn in as Venezuela's head of state at the resolution timestamp, with Polymarket offering a 'No Head of State' option and explicit UN fallback procedures if the Venezuelan government does not clearly designate a leader.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket uses undefined placeholder leaders ('Leader 2', 'Leader 4', etc.) and includes a 'No Head of State' outcome, while Kalshi lists 18 specific named individuals with no null/absent state option. This creates logical incompleteness on Polymarket and makes cross-platform comparison impossible.Hero Tip:
Do not trade these markets across platforms. Polymarket's unidentified leader placeholders are unresolvable without clarification of who Leaders 2, 4, 6, etc. actually are. Kalshi's exhaustive list assumes exactly one of 18 named individuals will hold office, which contradicts Polymarket's 'No Head of State' outcome. Wait for platform clarification before placing bets.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Includes 18 mutually exclusive outcomes covering named individuals (Machado, Maduro, Trump, Rubio, etc.), a 'No Head of State' option, and 14 undefined placeholder outcomes ('Leader 1' through 'Leader 40'). Resolution defaults to UN recognition if Venezuelan government is unclear. The presence of 'No Head of State' implies the market allows for a null outcome on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
- Kalshi: Lists exactly 18 specific named individuals (Guaidó, Rodríguez Torres, Miller, Cabello, Padrino López, Grenell, Hegseth, Maduro, Rubio, Machado, Jorge Rodríguez, Donovan, Pettus, González Urrutia, Delcy Rodríguez, Trump, Figuera, Caine). Each resolves YES if that individual holds head of state on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. No 'No Head of State' outcome; no placeholder leaders. Implicitly assumes exactly one of these 18 will hold office.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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