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332,550

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4,150

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Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Politics
limitless
kalshi
polymarket
predict

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Total volume:
$101,176,123
Volume 24h:
$10,149
76%
Liquidity:
$1,936,831
4%
Open interest:
$1,186,108
0.09%

Nicolás Maduro

all

4 markets

Polymarket

86.3%

Predict

85.4%

Kalshi

84%

Limitless

N/A

consensus

85.2%

+3.6%

spread

84-86.3%

(2.3pp)

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Aug 19

Aug 21

Aug 22

Aug 23

Aug 24

Aug 25

Aug 26

Vol.

$58.7k

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

86%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 86.3¢ buys you 116 shares | Odds: 86% Total Payout: $116 | Net Profit: $16 Multiplier: 1.16x | ROI: 16% | APY: 53% 126 days to resolution
predict

Trade on Predict

At 85.4¢ buys you 117 shares | Odds: 85% Total Payout: $117 | Net Profit: $17 Multiplier: 1.17x | ROI: 17% | APY: 57% 126 days to resolution
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 84¢ buys you 119 shares | Odds: 82% Total Payout: $119 | Net Profit: $19 Multiplier: 1.19x | ROI: 19% | APY: 65% 126 days to resolution
limitless

Trade on Limitless

At 99.9¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 0% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0.1% | APY: 0.29% 126 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
MUI X License key version mismatch
Total markets: 25 of 54

Description

This event group concerns determining who will officially hold the position of head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026. Markets across multiple platforms are structured to resolve based on the individual formally appointed, confirmed, and sworn in as head of state by the UN-recognized government of Venezuela, with specific criteria for handling ambiguities.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms use identical definitions of 'officially holds,' resolution sources, and tie-breaking logic for determining Venezuela's head of state as of December 31, 2026.Primary resolution logic: Official information from the UN-recognized government of Venezuela, with fallback to UN listings and credible reporting consensus

Core resolution logic:

  • The individual must be formally appointed, confirmed (if required), and sworn in as head of state by the UN-recognized government of Venezuela by December 31, 2026
  • If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state the head of state, the UN-listed individual will resolve the market
  • If multiple officials are listed, the one with primary status resolves; if no distinction is made, the first to assume the position resolves
  • If no individual meets the criteria, the market resolves to 'No Head of State'

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Temporary Power Assignments: Temporary legal measures assigning presidential powers do not constitute a transfer of the presidency unless accompanied by formal appointment, confirmation, and swearing-in
  • Successor Designation: Individuals named as successors or heir apparent but not yet appointed do not qualify as official holders
Timing: Resolution occurs on January 1, 2027, based on official status as of December 31, 2026 at 12 PM ETOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Show more

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.

Kalshi

A person officially holds the head of state position if any one of three criteria is met: (i) formal appointment, confirmation if required, and swearing-in; (ii) listing in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources; or (iii) active service with full authority and responsibilities, excluding suspended, on-leave, or acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified. Nomination without effective appointment, appointments effective after December 31, 2026, previous service with expired terms, consultant or unofficial roles, successor designations, and oversight roles do not constitute officially holding the position. Acting or interim capacity does not satisfy the criterion unless explicitly specified. Resolution is based on recognition by authoritative Venezuelan government sources prioritized by the Source Agency hierarchy.

Predict

This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.

Limitless

Additional context — Updated August 25, 2026 Per the rules, “officially holds” refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. As of this clarification, The UN-recognized government of Venezuela has not formally removed or replaced Nicolás Maduro as President, and official government sources and statements continue to identify him as the President of Venezuela. Temporary legal measures assigning the exercise of presidential powers do not, on their own, constitute a transfer of the presidency. This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Frequently asked questions

The Venezuela leadership race dashboard aggregates real-time data from multiple platforms, showing how traders price the likelihood of different leaders taking charge by the end of 2026. It pulls volume and odds from venues like Polymarket and Kalshi, giving you a consensus view of market expectations for this political contest. With total volume at $101,116,091 and 24-hour volume of $31,931, it reflects the most liquid and watched forecast for who will lead Venezuela at Dec 31, 2026.

Prediction market odds on this market often diverge from traditional polling averages because traders incorporate factors beyond public opinion, such as economic conditions, international pressure, and internal political maneuvering. While polls might show a snapshot of voter intent, market prices reflect a weighted assessment of all available information and the perceived stability of potential outcomes. This can lead to notable differences, especially when events shift perceptions rapidly.

On Polymarket and Kalshi, prices can vary due to differences in user bases, liquidity, and trading activity. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, one platform might attract more regional traders who have distinct views on local political dynamics, while another could see heavier institutional participation. These factors, along with varying market depths, help explain why Polymarket currently favors Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? at 86.3%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? at 82.0%.

This market resolves around Dec 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final determination will hinge on authoritative news sources and official announcements confirming who holds the head of state position at the close of 2026, removing speculation through documented fact.

Key signals that could shift this market include major political developments such as elections, coups, international sanctions, or significant policy announcements from contenders. Economic shifts, public protests, and changes in military or diplomatic support may also reshape trader sentiment. Any event that alters the perceived likelihood of Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? remaining or being replaced will likely cause rapid price adjustments on platforms tracking the Venezuela leadership race.