TOTAL VOLUME:

$147.8b

24H VOL:

$153,964,051

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,815,744,871

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,809,858,743

498,684

Markets across

37,244

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,831

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
polymarket
predict

Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Dec 12, 2025, 11:46 AM EST - Jan 1, 2028, 12:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$17,302,605
Volume 24h:
$41,847
49%
Liquidity:
$944,638
3%
Open interest:
$1,187,072N/A

$100M

 - Polymarket

$100M - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2028

Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?

98%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 98.6¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 98% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: 1% 433 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

$100M

Trade
98%
Yes 98.6¢No 1.7¢
0.3¢
$18,466
$82,801
0%
0.34%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
polymarket

$200M

Trade
96%
1%
Yes 98¢No 5.1¢
3.1¢
$22,187
$79,543
0.08%
0.55%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
polymarket

$300M

Trade
96%
Yes 95.7¢No 4.5¢
0.2¢
$39,157
$277,589
0.45%
2%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
predict

$500M

Trade
88%
Yes 87.6¢No 12.5¢
0.1¢
$90,220
$1,120,363
0.01%
2%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
polymarket

$500M

Trade
87%
Yes 87¢No 14¢
1¢
$45,052
$1,009,963
0.03%
0.73%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
87.1%
Yes 87.3¢No 13.3¢
Avg: 0.6¢Max: 1¢
predict

$800M

Trade
71%
Yes 71.2¢No 29.7¢
0.9¢
$38,761
$981,706
0.13%
1%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
polymarket

$800M

Trade
71%
Yes 71¢No 30¢
1¢
$51,615
$516,750
0.18%
1%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
70.7%
Yes 71.1¢No 29.9¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
predict

$1B

Trade
57%
Yes 59¢No 45.3¢
4.3¢
$8,871
$962,257
0.2%
2%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
polymarket

$1B

Trade
55%
3%
Yes 55¢No 46¢
1¢
$89,952
$840,603
2%
8%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
55.8%
Yes 57¢No 45.7¢
Avg: 2.7¢Max: 4.3¢
predict

$2B

Trade
26%
Yes 25.5¢No 74.6¢
0.1¢
$78,830
$1,667,229
0.05%
0.62%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
polymarket

$2B

Trade
25%
Yes 26.9¢No 76.3¢
3.2¢
$51,791
$430,555
2%
6%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
25.5%
Yes 26.2¢No 75.4¢
Avg: 1.7¢Max: 3.2¢
polymarket

$3B

Trade
11%
2%
Yes 11.7¢No 89.7¢
1.4¢
$42,518
$144,880
0.22%
3%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
predict

$3B

Trade
11%
Yes 10.9¢No 89.2¢
0.1¢
$16,863
$2,857,398
0.01%
0.29%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
10.9%
Yes 11.3¢No 89.5¢
Avg: 0.8¢Max: 1.4¢
polymarket

$4B

Trade
6%
Yes 6.2¢No 93.9¢
0.1¢
$48,937
$180,457
0%
0.96%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
predict

$4B

Trade
6%
Yes 5.7¢No 94.4¢
0.1¢
$15,595
$2,499,422
0.05%
0.11%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
5.7%
Yes 5.9¢No 94.2¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
predict

$5B

Trade
2%
Yes 2.3¢No 97.8¢
0.1¢
$237,096
$3,547,882
0.09%
0.55%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
polymarket

$5B

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 98.1¢
0.1¢
$48,726
$103,206
2%
4%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
2.3%
Yes 2.2¢No 98¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
Total markets: 17

Description

This event group tracks whether Variational's governance token will achieve specific Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) thresholds at exactly 4:00 PM ET on the day after its public launch. The group consists of 11 linked binary markets, each asking if the FDV will exceed a different dollar amount ($100M through $5B), with a hard deadline of December 31, 2027 for token launch.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Token fungibility requirement is explicit and mandatory on Predict but absent from Polymarket's criteria. This creates a scenario where the same token launch could resolve differently across platforms if the token does not meet standard fungible token specifications.Hero tip: Before Variational launches, confirm the token standard (ERC-20, SPL, native, or other fungible standard). If Variational issues a non-standard or non-fungible token, Predict markets will likely resolve NO regardless of FDV, while Polymarket markets may still resolve based on price and supply data. Hedge accordingly or clarify with Polymarket moderators in advance.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Requires token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. No explicit fungibility standard mandated. Resolution source is the most liquid price source available. FDV = total token supply × token price.
  • Predict: Explicitly requires fungible token standards (ERC-20, SPL, native L1, or equivalent). Explicitly excludes non-fungible tokens such as ERC-1155. Primary resolution source is Variational information with credible reporting consensus as fallback. FDV = total token supply × token price.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Predict

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. The token must be fungible, meaning all units of the token are identical and interchangeable. Examples of qualifying fungible token standards include: - ERC-20 or compatible/derivative standards on any EVM-compatible chain - SPL / SPL Token-2022 standard on Solana - Native blockchain tokens (e.g., a project's own Layer 1 chain coin) - Equivalent fungible token standards on other blockchains Non-fungible tokens such as ERC-1155 tokens will not qualify for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Variational, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Predict, the Variational FDV market dashboard tracks predictions on whether the Variational FDV will be above a certain threshold one day after launch. Currently, this market aggregates trading volume of $17,302,076 with $41,036 in 24-hour volume. The consensus view across these platforms is that the Variational FDV will likely exceed the specified level, though opinions differ on the exact probability. This dashboard provides a centralized view of the collective wisdom of these prediction markets, offering insights into expectations surrounding this event.

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect a more accurate forecast of future events than traditional polling or expert opinions. This is because traders have a financial incentive to correctly predict the outcome, leading to informed decision-making. The price action in this market represents a real-time assessment of the probability of the Variational FDV exceeding the target value. While not a direct comparison to a 'spot price,' the market price effectively functions as a forward-looking expectation, incorporating available information and risk assessment.

Prices on Polymarket and Predict may differ due to variations in trader demographics, liquidity, and market-specific rules. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a different pool of participants with varying risk appetites and information sets, which influences price discovery. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? at 98.5%, while Predict leans toward Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? at 87.6%. These differences can also arise from temporary imbalances in buy and sell pressure on each platform, creating arbitrage opportunities for traders.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2028, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on whether the Variational FDV is above the specified level one day after launch, as determined by publicly available data sources. The final price of this market will reflect the accuracy of the collective prediction made by traders on Polymarket and Predict leading up to the resolution date.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding the launch of the Variational FDV, including technical updates, adoption rates, or partnerships, would likely cause price fluctuations. Broader market sentiment towards crypto assets and decentralized finance could also play a role. Unexpected regulatory announcements or security breaches related to the Variational FDV project could also shift trader expectations. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding the dynamics of this market as it approaches its resolution date.