TOTAL VOLUME:

$119.4b

24H VOL:

$77,805,735

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,423,588,327

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,167,150,414

327,647

Markets across

32,801

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,252

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
Watchlist
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
US-Iran nuclear deal?
kalshi
limitless

US-Iran nuclear deal?

Total volume:
$20,416,422
Volume 24h:
$8,750
25%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$6,920,282
0.09%

Before Jan 20, 2029

 - Kalshi

Before Jan 20, 2029 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?

28%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 32¢ buys you 313 shares | Odds: 28% Total Payout: $313 | Net Profit: $213 Multiplier: 3.13x | ROI: 213% High Projected APY: 2,923% 122 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Before Jan 20, 2029

Trade
28%
4%
Yes 32¢No 72¢
4¢
N/A
$116,470
0.57%
8%
$32,365
4mo 2d
active
kalshi

Before 2028

Trade
23%
1%
Yes 25¢No 82¢
7¢
N/A
$90,772
0.08%
2%
$29,004
4mo 2d
active
kalshi

Before Feb 1, 2027

Trade
8%
Yes 9¢No 93¢
2¢
N/A
$12,195
0%
1%
$8,059
4mo 2d
active
kalshi

Before 2027

Trade
7%
Yes 8.8¢No 92.6¢
1.4¢
N/A
$1,547,373
0.08%
0.69%
$473,431
4mo 2d
active
kalshi

Before Mar 1, 2027

Trade
7%
5%
Yes 10¢No 92¢
2¢
N/A
$43,914
2%
5%
$23,406
4mo 2d
active
kalshi

Before December

Trade
5%
Yes 6¢No 96¢
2¢
N/A
$150,096
0.28%
8%
$66,794
4mo 2d
active
kalshi

Before November

Trade
3%
Yes 4¢No 97¢
1¢
N/A
$245,081
0.09%
11%
$122,847
4mo 2d
active
kalshi

Before October

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$511,447
1%
8%
$249,548
4mo 2d
active
kalshi

Before September

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$2,188,400
0%
0.82%
$1,047,532
4mo 2d
active
limitless

December 31, 2026

Trade
N/A
N/A
4.5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 1d
active
limitless

September 30, 2026

Trade
N/A
N/A
2.8¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 1d
active
kalshi

Before April

View
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,773,725
N/A
N/A
$862,611
4mo 2d
No
kalshi

Before June

View
0%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,392,806
N/A
N/A
$1,245,995
4mo 2d
No
kalshi

Before May

View
0%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,881,261
N/A
N/A
$565,400
4mo 2d
No
kalshi

Before July

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,649,545
N/A
N/A
$1,091,239
4mo 2d
No
kalshi

Before August

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,813,334
N/A
N/A
$1,102,051
4mo 2d
No
limitless

August 31, 2026

View
N/A
N/A
99.8¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 1d
No
Total markets: 17

Intro

This market tracks the likelihood of the United States agreeing to a new nuclear deal with Iran this year. Currently, the consensus probability across Kalshi and Limitless is 28.0% that such a deal will be reached, with a 23.0% probability for the second-highest outcome. Resolution will be determined by whether the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before January 1, 2027, as defined by the resolution source. Traders should watch for developments surrounding the various deadlines for a new deal or formal peace talks scheduled throughout 2026 and 2027.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Multiple conflicting deadlines create SKU risk and timing divergence across marketsHero tip: Focus trades on the earliest deadline markets (Apr 1, 2026 Kalshi or Aug 31, 2026 Limitless) to avoid being caught by later deadlines. Monitor official government announcements and consensus media reporting for any new US-Iran diplomatic meetings or agreements.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: 14 separate markets with deadlines between Apr 1, 2026 and Mar 1, 2027 for a new US-Iran nuclear deal - resolves Yes if agreement occurs before any listed deadline
  • Limitless: Two markets for formal senior-level peace talks: by Aug 31, 2026 and by Sep 30, 2026 - requires in-person meetings with senior representatives, not technical talks
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Kalshi

A qualifying Iran-US nuclear deal must be a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both governments that satisfies two independent criteria. First, it must impose verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program—meaning concrete, objectively ascertainable standards such as defined limits on uranium enrichment, centrifuge numbers, nuclear facility operations, or enriched uranium stockpiles. General pledges or vague commitments without specific metrics or monitoring mechanisms do not qualify; however, commitments to completely stop or suspend specific activities establish concrete prohibitions and satisfy this requirement. Second, the agreement must provide for the lifting, suspension, or modification of at least one US economic sanction on Iran in exchange for Iran's nuclear commitments. Multilateral agreements involving other countries qualify if the United States participates. Critically, both governments publicly and officially agreeing to the terms of a qualifying written agreement is sufficient for resolution to Yes, even if formal signing has not yet occurred. The event resolves Yes if such an agreement is agreed to, signed, or accepted at any point before the specified deadline.

Limitless

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the US-Iran nuclear deal market aggregates data across multiple prediction venues, showing real-time probabilities and volume. It displays how traders on different platforms price the likelihood of a new nuclear agreement between the United States and Iran. The view combines inputs from all participating markets, offering a consensus signal based on current betting activity and total volume of $20,416,422.

On Kalshi, this market reflects trader sentiment through continuous price adjustments, while polling averages aggregate public opinion snapshots. Prediction markets often price in new information faster than traditional polls, especially for events like the US-Iran nuclear deal market where diplomatic shifts can occur rapidly. The current odds show a 28.0% probability, suggesting market participants weigh recent negotiations and geopolitical signals differently than broad public surveys typically capture. This divergence can highlight underappreciated risks or opportunities that polls might miss, offering a complementary view to conventional opinion research.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. A successful resolution requires official announcements or documented evidence of a new nuclear deal between the two nations, assessed against widely accepted news and governmental sources.

Key signals include high-level diplomatic meetings, sanctions relief announcements, or statements from major global powers about nuclear negotiations. Media reports suggesting progress or breakdowns in talks, as well as regional geopolitical shifts, can also cause rapid swings. Any credible indication of formal agreement terms or, conversely, a public collapse of negotiations will likely shift probabilities dramatically before the market closes.