TOTAL VOLUME:
$92.8b
24H VOL:
$226,719,250
24H TRANSACTIONS:
886,147,118
OPEN INTEREST:
$2,054,593,838
781,124
Markets across
13,776
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
870
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
46%
VS.
Kalshi:
54%
TIME Person of the Year 2026? Odds & Prediction Markets
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Donald Trump
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Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed person, group, entity, or thing is TIME Person of the Year for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A listed option will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they/it are explicitly named as Person of the Year. Additionally, the following rules apply: If multiple people are explicitly named person of the year, both people will be considered TIME Person of the Year. If the TIME Person of the Year is a concept, group or thing, a person may still be considered Person of the Year if they are also explicitly named person of the year, or if they are directly associated with the concept, group or thing named as person of the Year and are pictured on any official TIME cover announcing the Person of the Year. For example, in 2025 when TIME Person of the Year was “Architects of AI” the option for Sam Altman would have resolved to “Yes” as he was associated with the concept and is pictured on the Cover. However, if Sam Altman were Person of the Year, and ChatGPT was shown on the cover, this would not qualify for ChatGPT because ChatGPT is not a person. If the TIME Person of the Year is a specific concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. artificial intelligence), listed concepts or entities will be considered Person of the Year only if they are synonymous with the announced TIME Person of the Year. For example, if ChatGPT were Person of the Year, options for AI or LLMs would resolve to “No” because, while they are conceptually linked, they are not synonymous. If TIME uses language that does not refer to a specific, commonly-recognized, concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. 2011’s “The Protester” or 2017’s “The Silence Breakers”), the TIME Person of the Year feature article will be used to determine the meaning of the language defining TIME Person of the Year. In such cases, listed concepts, groups, or things will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they can be reasonably understood as equivalent to the meaning of the language used to define TIME Person of the Year. For example, the option for “The Me Too Movement” would have resolved to “Yes” in 2017. If for any reason the TIME's Person of the Year is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the TIME magazine cover or covers announcing the 2026 TIME Person of the Year; however, the TIME Person of the Year Feature article may also be used.
Opinion
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed person, group, entity, or thing is TIME Person of the Year for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A listed option will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they/it are explicitly named as Person of the Year. Additionally, the following rules apply: If multiple people are explicitly named person of the year, both people will be considered TIME Person of the Year. If the TIME Person of the Year is a concept, group or thing, a person may still be considered Person of the Year if they are also explicitly named person of the year, or if they are directly associated with the concept, group or thing named as person of the Year and are pictured on any official TIME cover announcing the Person of the Year. For example, in 2025 when TIME Person of the Year was “Architects of AI” the option for Sam Altman would have resolved to “Yes” as he was associated with the concept and is pictured on the Cover. However, if Sam Altman were Person of the Year, and ChatGPT was shown on the cover, this would not qualify for ChatGPT because ChatGPT is not a person. If the TIME Person of the Year is a specific concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. artificial intelligence), listed concepts or entities will be considered Person of the Year only if they are synonymous with the announced TIME Person of the Year. For example, if ChatGPT were Person of the Year, options for AI or LLMs would resolve to “No” because, while they are conceptually linked, they are not synonymous. If TIME uses language that does not refer to a specific, commonly-recognized, concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. 2011’s “The Protester” or 2017’s “The Silence Breakers”), the TIME Person of the Year feature article will be used to determine the meaning of the language defining TIME Person of the Year. In such cases, listed concepts, groups, or things will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they can be reasonably understood as equivalent to the meaning of the language used to define TIME Person of the Year. For example, the option for “The Me Too Movement” would have resolved to “Yes” in 2017. If for any reason the TIME's Person of the Year is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the TIME magazine cover or covers announcing the 2026 TIME Person of the Year; however, the TIME Person of the Year Feature article may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they reflect real-money incentives and continuous price discovery rather than static polling snapshots. While analysts and media commentators may favor certain candidates based on recent news or institutional prominence, this market aggregates the collective judgment of traders who have financial skin in the game. Comparing the two reveals whether professional consensus aligns with market-based expectations or whether traders are pricing in different probabilities based on emerging signals or overlooked factors.
On Opinion, traders set prices by buying and selling shares that represent each potential outcome, with the share price reflecting the implied probability of that candidate winning. On Opinion, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more capital flowing into a particular candidate's shares, the higher that price climbs, and vice versa. This continuous auction mechanism ensures prices stay responsive to new information, breaking news, or shifts in public sentiment throughout the year leading up to the award announcement.
This market resolves around Dec 31, 2026, once TIME magazine announces its official Person of the Year selection. The outcome is confirmed when the award is publicly verified through credible reporting and official sources. Until that announcement, traders can continue adjusting positions based on late-breaking developments, final candidate lists, or last-minute momentum shifts that might influence the magazine's editorial decision.
Major geopolitical events, scientific breakthroughs, cultural moments, or leadership changes can dramatically shift odds as traders reassess which figures have made the most significant global impact. Media coverage intensifying around specific candidates, unexpected controversies, or new achievements all influence market prices. Additionally, TIME's own editorial hints, historical patterns in their selection process, and year-end retrospectives often trigger trading surges. Close attention to international news and cultural trends provides early signals of how this market may evolve.
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