TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi presents 12 distinct resolution conditions with staggered dates from April 2026 through July 2027, while Polymarket defines a single unified resolution window ending July 31, 2026. The markets have different effective deadlines and trigger mechanisms.Hero Tip:
Treat these as separate markets with different risk profiles. Kalshi's earliest resolution date is April 1, 2026 (condition 7); Polymarket's hard deadline is July 31, 2026. A Yes outcome on Kalshi could occur 4 months before Polymarket's final resolution date. Conversely, if the threshold is not met by July 31, 2026, Kalshi conditions 11 and 12 (extending to April 1, 2027 and July 1, 2027) remain unresolved. Hedge accordingly.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Single resolution window with hard deadline of July 31, 2026. Resolves Yes if 7-day moving average of transit calls reaches 60+ at any point between market creation and July 31, 2026; resolves No if threshold never met by that date. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Yes if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.'
- Kalshi: 12 separate resolution conditions with multiple trigger dates. Each condition independently resolves Yes if threshold is met before its specified date. Dates range from April 1, 2026 (earliest) to July 1, 2027 (latest). Quote: 'If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before [date], then the market resolves to Yes' (repeated across 12 conditions with varying dates).
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