TOTAL VOLUME:
$97.4b
24H VOL:
$253,547,375
24H TRANSACTIONS:
951,753,729
OPEN INTEREST:
$2,134,096,931
829,404
Markets across
15,000
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
955
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
Will Republicans win the Senate race in South Carolina?
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Intro
This market tracks which party will win the U.S. Senate seat from South Carolina for the term beginning in 2027. On Kalshi, Republicans winning the race stands at 83.0%, while Democrats winning is at 15.0%. The market resolves based on which party's representative is sworn in as Senator of South Carolina for the 2027 term. Watch for the outcome to be determined by the swearing-in date of January 4, 2027, when the new Senate term officially begins.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by which party's representative is sworn in as Senator of South Carolina for the term beginning in 2027. The market resolves to Yes if either a Republican or Democratic party representative assumes the office, with each party having a separate market outcome.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling because traders incorporate real-time information, fundraising data, and historical turnout patterns that polls may lag. Markets aggregate dispersed knowledge from many participants with financial incentives to forecast accurately, whereas polls capture voter sentiment at a single moment. South Carolina Senate races typically see prediction markets price in structural factors like voter registration trends and campaign momentum faster than polls update. Comparing market odds to recent polls can reveal where traders believe the race is moving or where public opinion may shift before the next survey.
On Kalshi, the South Carolina Senate winner market is priced as a binary contract reflecting the probability of the Democratic candidate winning the race. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The top outcome currently trades at 84.0%, meaning the market assigns that probability to a Democratic victory. Prices move continuously as traders buy and sell contracts based on news, polling shifts, and campaign developments. Kalshi's order-book model allows you to see all pending bids and offers, giving transparency into where the next trades may occur and how much liquidity exists at different price levels.
The South Carolina Senate winner market resolves on Jan 4, 2027, following the official election date. Resolution is determined by the certified election results from South Carolina's election authority. The market will settle based on which candidate receives the most votes and wins the Senate seat. Traders should monitor official state announcements and any recount or legal proceedings that may affect the final certified outcome, as resolution timing can shift if disputes arise.
Key catalysts for the South Carolina Senate race include candidate debate performances, major endorsements, campaign spending announcements, and shifts in national political momentum. Polling releases—especially from high-quality firms—often trigger sharp price moves on Kalshi. Unexpected candidate statements, personal controversies, or economic news affecting voter priorities can reshape trader expectations. Voter registration milestones and early voting turnout data in the final weeks typically amplify volatility. National Senate dynamics and fundraising reports also influence how traders price South Carolina's competitive race, as the seat's importance to chamber control may shift.
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