TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Solana above ___ on March 7?
Volume:
$203,162
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Solana's price will exceed various thresholds ($30–$130) on March 7, 2026. Markets are offered on both Polymarket (using Binance SOL/USDT 1-minute candle close at 12:00 PM ET) and Kalshi (using CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI 60-second average at 5:00 PM EST). The core question is identical across platforms: will SOL trade above a specified price at a defined moment on that date?
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Settlement timing divergence (5-hour gap) combined with distinct data sources (Binance 1m candle vs. CF Benchmarks RTI index). Both are valid and resolvable, but will produce independent outcomes.Hero Tip:
Treat Polymarket and Kalshi as separate markets with independent settlement values. Polymarket settles at noon ET; Kalshi settles at 5 PM EST the same day. Price movement between 12:00 PM and 5:00 PM ET will create divergent resolutions. Use both sources to hedge directional exposure, but do not assume they will agree.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Uses Binance SOL/USDT 1-minute candle close price at 12:00 PM ET (noon). Resolution source is the official Binance trading platform (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT). Precision determined by Binance's decimal places. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Yes if the Binance 1 minute candle for SOL/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final Close price higher than the price specified in the title.'
- Kalshi: Uses CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI 60-second simple average calculated in the 60 seconds before 5:00 PM EST (5 hours after Polymarket settlement). Resolution is Yes if this average exceeds the threshold. Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI before 5 PM EST is above [threshold] at 5 PM EST on Mar 7, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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