TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
United Russia (ER)
- Polymarket
United Russia (ER) - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 21, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Sep 21, 6:44 AM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks which political party will win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election. Currently, Polymarket gives a 99.6% probability to United Russia (ER) winning the most seats, while the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) is at 0.3%. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting, prioritizing official results from Russian government sources like the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. Keep an eye on the official announcement of election results following the scheduled election date of September 30, 2026, as this will determine the outcome of the market.
Polymarket
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds suggest a strong likelihood of a particular outcome in the Russian parliamentary election. However, it’s important to remember that prediction markets and polling averages represent different types of data. Polls capture stated preferences at a specific point in time, while this market reflects what people are willing to *bet* on, which can incorporate more information and nuanced expectations. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like strategic voting, information asymmetry, or differing levels of public engagement. It's useful to consider both sources when forming an overall assessment.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their beliefs about the outcome of the Russian parliamentary election. The price of these shares directly reflects the probability of an event occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the collective wisdom of the crowd, and changes in price reflect new information or shifts in sentiment. The market's liquidity, as shown by the trading volume, influences how easily prices adjust to new information.
This market resolves around Sep 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the results of the Russian parliamentary election are verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will reflect the party that ultimately wins the most seats in the parliament following the election. Resolution will be based on official election results as reported by recognized and impartial sources. It's important to note that the specific details of the election process and the official vote count will determine the final outcome of this market.
Several signals or events could significantly influence this market before Sep 30, 2026. Major political developments within Russia, such as changes in leadership, significant policy announcements, or unexpected scandals, could all shift expectations. International events and geopolitical tensions could also play a role, particularly if they impact Russia's political landscape. Additionally, the release of credible polling data, or any indications of electoral interference, could cause the market to react. Any news that alters perceptions of the likely election outcome has the potential to move this market.
