TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 27, 5:21 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks the probability of who People Magazine will name as their “Sexiest Man Alive” in 2026. Currently, the consensus probability that Person 1 will receive the honor is 77.0%. This forecast aggregates data from Polymarket and Kalshi, and will resolve based on the official announcement published at https://people.com/. The resolution of this market will be determined by People Magazine’s selection, and users should watch for the publication of the “Sexiest Man Alive” issue, expected around January 1, 2027, to see who is crowned.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Polymarket includes markets for generic 'Person X' while Kalshi only lists specific individuals. This creates a scope difference.Hero tip: Prioritize trading on named individuals available on Kalshi, as these markets have clearer resolution criteria. Be cautious with Polymarket's 'Person X' markets due to their speculative nature.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves based on People Magazine's selection, including a broad set of 'Person X' markets. Tiebreaker is alphabetical order. Resolves to 'Other' if no one is selected.
- Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' only if a specific named individual is selected as People's Sexiest Man Alive. No 'Other' option or tiebreaker rule is specified.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the name of the person who is named People Magazine's Sexiest Man Alive. If more than one person is named Sexiest Man Alive by People Magazine, this market will resolve in favor of the person whose name comes first in alphabetical order. If no Sexiest Man Alive is announced for 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be People (https://people.com/) or a consensus of credible reporting.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by People magazine's official 2026 Sexiest Man Alive designation. Each market outcome corresponds to a specific individual; if that person receives the Sexiest Man Alive title in 2026, their market resolves affirmatively. Only the official People magazine selection applies—no alternative sources or fan votes qualify.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may rely on subjective factors or brand endorsements, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who have skin in the game. These traders are incentivized to assess all available information – public opinion, media buzz, and even social media trends – to make accurate predictions. While analyst opinions can be valuable, the financial commitment inherent in prediction markets can lead to more accurate and rapidly updating forecasts. This market, in particular, captures a real-time assessment of who is likely to receive the honor.
Numerous signals could influence trading activity in this market. Major film or television roles, significant public appearances, and positive media coverage for potential candidates could all drive up their implied probability. Shifts in public opinion, as measured by social media trends or polls, could also have a substantial impact. Unexpected events, such as a candidate’s involvement in a high-profile charity initiative or a viral moment, could also move the market. Any news that alters a candidate’s public image or perceived attractiveness could lead to changes in trading volume and price.
