Oil Price (WTI) on Election Day (November 3, 2026)?

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders submit buy and sell orders for contracts that pay out based on the final WTI oil price on Election Day. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective expectations of all participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust its forecast as conditions change. The current price reflects the probability-weighted average of all possible outcomes.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil on November 3, 2026, as reported by a widely recognized source, will determine the payout of contracts. The market will then be settled based on which price range the actual oil price falls into. Traders holding winning contracts will receive a payout, while those holding losing contracts will forfeit their investment.

Numerous factors could significantly impact the WTI oil price and, consequently, this market. Geopolitical events, such as conflicts in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ production policies, are major drivers. Economic indicators, like global economic growth or recessionary fears, also play a crucial role, as they influence demand. Unexpected supply disruptions, for example, due to natural disasters or infrastructure failures, could cause prices to spike. Even shifts in investor sentiment and speculative trading activity can contribute to price volatility in this market.