TOTAL VOLUME:

$147b

24H VOL:

$166,780,787

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,782,432,967

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,766,611,068

505,723

Markets across

37,656

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,854

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
polymarket
kalshi
predict

Who will win Nobel Peace Prize?

Volume:
$38,741,522

Other

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 9, 2026

Closed: Oct 9, 8:16 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Other

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$38,770
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

Other

View
N/A
N/A
—
$60
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Julian Assange

View
2%
Yes 1.7¢No 98.3¢
—
$33,460
$78,643
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Julian Assange

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,205,056
N/A
N/A
N/A
5mo 1w 3d
No
predict

Elon Musk

View
2%
Yes 1.7¢No 98.3¢
—
$29,612
$81,353
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Elon Musk

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,244,891
N/A
N/A
N/A
5mo 1w 3d
No
kalshi

Elon Musk

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21,399
N/A
N/A
$17,627
2mo 1w 3d
No
predict

Yulia Navalnaya

View
5%
Yes 4.9¢No 95.1¢
—
$29,967
$36,232
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Yulia Navalnaya

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,987,360
N/A
N/A
N/A
5mo 1w 3d
No
kalshi

Yulia Navalnaya

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$419,255
N/A
N/A
$211,206
2mo 1w 3d
No
predict

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

View
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢
—
$29,901
$77,646
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$935,224
N/A
N/A
N/A
5mo 1w 3d
No
kalshi

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$54,869
N/A
N/A
$27,336
2mo 1w 3d
No
predict

Pope Leo XIV

View
0%
1%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢
—
$29,799
$112,713
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Pope Leo XIV

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,006,299
N/A
N/A
N/A
5mo 1w 3d
No
kalshi

Pope Leo XIV

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$164,185
N/A
N/A
$119,546
2mo 1w 3d
No
predict

Khaled Mashal

View
70%
25%
Yes 69.6¢No 30.4¢
—
$30,208
$300
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Khaled Mashal

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$912,689
N/A
N/A
N/A
5mo 1w 3d
No
predict

Ahmed al-Sharaa

View
100%
99%
Yes 99.8¢No 0.2¢
—
$37,742
$300
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Ahmed al-Sharaa

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,319,718
N/A
N/A
N/A
5mo 1w 3d
No
predict

Narendra Modi

View
50%
Yes 49.5¢No 50.5¢
—
$29,937
$301
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Narendra Modi

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$703,975
N/A
N/A
N/A
5mo 1w 3d
No
predict

Mohammed bin Salman

View
70%
Yes 69.6¢No 30.4¢
—
$29,949
$300
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Mohammed bin Salman

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,226,149
N/A
N/A
N/A
5mo 1w 3d
No
predict

Charlie Kirk

View
70%
Yes 69.5¢No 30.5¢
—
$29,886
$300
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 142

Intro

This market tracks the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, aggregating views from Polymarket, Kalshi, and Predict. Currently, the consensus probability that Will Ahmed al-Sharaa will win the prize is 99.8%. This market will resolve according to the winner as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee, with specific precedence rules for certain individuals and a fallback to “Other” if no announcement is made by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Keep an eye on the nominations released by the Norwegian Nobel Committee, typically beginning in February 2027, for potential shifts in the market.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Differing scopes and resolution precedence rules across platforms create potential for inconsistent outcomes.Hero tip: Prioritize markets on Polymarket for individuals with high precedence (Trump, Zelenskyy, Putin, etc.) due to the defined resolution order. Consider the 'Other' resolution possibility on Polymarket if no announcement is made by the specified date.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to a single winner even with joint recipients, applying a specific precedence order for Trump, Zelenskyy, Netanyahu, Putin, and Musk. Resolves to 'Other' if no announcement by March 31, 2027. Tie-breaking is alphabetical.
  • Kalshi: Each market resolves independently based on whether the named entity wins the prize. No overarching precedence rules or 'Other' resolution condition are defined.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

Kalshi

If Donald Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Francesca Albanese wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Narges Mohammadi wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Volodymyr Zelenskyy wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If European Union wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Elon Musk wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières) wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If International Court of Justice (ICJ) wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Minneapolis wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If Dario Amodei wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If Sam Altman wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If Yulia Navalnaya wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If Mykola Kuleba / Save Ukraine wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If Save the Children wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If Committee to Protect Journalists wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If International Criminal Court wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If Pope Leo XIV wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If UNRWA wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Predict

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, the Nobel Peace Prize market dashboard tracks the implied probability of various individuals winning the prize in 2026. Currently, this market aggregates trading volume of $38,741,522 with $6,285,056 traded in the last 24 hours. This provides a consensus view of predictions, reflecting the collective wisdom of traders on both platforms. The dashboard displays the probabilities as determined by the buy and sell orders placed by users, offering a real-time assessment of who is most likely to receive the award. This is a dynamic view of the Nobel Peace Prize market.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what people are willing to *bet* on, revealing stronger convictions. Polling data can be influenced by social desirability bias or incomplete sampling, whereas the financial incentive in this market encourages more honest and informed predictions. It’s not uncommon to see discrepancies, particularly when dealing with complex events like the Nobel Peace Prize, where subjective factors play a significant role. Both approaches provide valuable insights, but the market can be a more accurate signal of likely outcomes.

Several signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major geopolitical developments, shifts in international relations, and prominent advocacy work by potential candidates are all key catalysts. Increased media attention surrounding a particular individual’s peace efforts, or significant endorsements from influential figures, could also drive price movements. Unexpected crises or breakthroughs in areas like conflict resolution or human rights could also reshape the probabilities. Any news that alters perceptions of a candidate’s likelihood of winning will likely be reflected in the trading activity and, therefore, the price of this market.