TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
polymarket

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Volume:
$67,417,358

Starmer - UK PM

 - Polymarket

Starmer - UK PM - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 20, 2026

Closed: Dec 30, 7:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Starmer - UK PM

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,491,475
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
Yes
polymarket

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,461,580
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
No
polymarket

Abbas - President of Palestine

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,297,722
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
No
polymarket

None before 2027

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,233,753
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
No
polymarket

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,031,057
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
No
polymarket

Milei - Argentina President

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,244,166
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
No
polymarket

Putin - Russia President

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,797,407
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
No
polymarket

Lecornu - France PM

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,580,833
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
No
polymarket

Netanyahu - Israel PM

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,225,415
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
No
polymarket

Trump - USA President

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,223,953
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
No
polymarket

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,797,449
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
No
polymarket

Petro - Colombia President

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,230,522
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
No
polymarket

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,193,622
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
No
polymarket

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$312,198
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
No
polymarket

Sánchez - Spanish PM

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$288,806
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
No
polymarket

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$260,385
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
No
polymarket

Merz - German Chancellor

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$256,522
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
No
polymarket

Macron - France President

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$242,790
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
No
polymarket

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$219,801
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
No
polymarket

Albanese - Australia PM

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$216,446
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
No
polymarket

al-Sharaa - Syria President

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$216,116
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
No
polymarket

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$209,632
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
No
polymarket

Takaichi - Japan PM

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$201,620
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
No
polymarket

Newsom - California Governor

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$184,090
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
No
Total markets: 24

Intro

This market on Polymarket tracks which world leader among a specified list will be the first to permanently leave office before 2027. Keir Starmer is the leading outcome at 96.7%, while Gustavo Petro stands at 1.1%. Resolution will be determined by credible reporting of the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office, with temporary removals and caretaker roles explicitly excluded. Watch for permanent departures from office through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the deadline for market resolution.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

Major catalysts include electoral defeats, coalition collapses, corruption scandals, health crises, or voluntary resignations by any tracked leader. Domestic political instability, confidence votes, and legislative gridlock can accelerate exit timelines. International pressure, economic downturns, or military conflicts may destabilize governments and force leadership changes. Announcement of snap elections or early retirement plans typically move odds sharply. Conversely, strong electoral victories or consolidation of power reduce exit probabilities. Traders monitor parliamentary dynamics, approval ratings, and geopolitical developments to adjust positions ahead of potential transitions.