TOTAL VOLUME:

$97.5b

24H VOL:

$265,777,486

24H TRANSACTIONS:

951,878,243

OPEN INTEREST:

$2,180,190,804

831,303

Markets across

15,095

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

966

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

45%

VS.

Kalshi:

55%

BETA
NBA Summer League: Cleveland Cavaliers vs. New Orleans Pelicans

Who will win Cavaliers vs. Pelicans?

Volume:
$5,644,648
PredictionHero
Cleveland 100%
kalshi
NBA Summer League: Cleveland Cavaliers vs. New Orleans Pelicans 100%
polymarket
New Orleans 0%
kalshi
Jul 9Jul 9Jul 9Jul 9Jul 10Jul 10Jul 10Jul 11Jul 11Jul 11Jul 12Jul 12Jul 12Jul 13Jul 13Jul 13Jul 14Jul 14Jul 14Jul 15Jul 15Jul 15406080100

Closed: Jul 15, 7:29 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Intro

This market tracks the outcome of a single NBA Summer League game between the Cleveland Cavaliers and New Orleans Pelicans scheduled for July 15, 2026. Aggregated across Polymarket and Kalshi, the consensus probability stands at 88.3% for the leading outcome, as determined by official NBA Summer League records. Watch for the game's conclusion on July 15, 2026, when the final result will be confirmed against NBA.com's official Summer League records.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's market contains a logical contradiction: both possible outcomes (Cleveland win and New Orleans win) are mapped to the same resolution state (Yes), making the market fundamentally unresolvable and creating a data integrity failure.Hero tip: Do not trade on Kalshi's version of this market. The resolution logic is broken and cannot distinguish between the two teams. Polymarket's binary structure is the only tradeable version.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Proper binary resolution with mutually exclusive outcomes. Resolves to team name of winner. Postponements keep market open; cancellations resolve 50-50. Key Quote: If the Cleveland Cavaliers win, the market will resolve to Cleveland Cavaliers. If the New Orleans Pelicans win, the market will resolve to New Orleans Pelicans.
  • Kalshi: Logically incoherent resolution structure. Both Cleveland win and New Orleans win resolve to Yes, creating an impossible settlement scenario. Key Quote: If Cleveland wins...then resolves to Yes. If New Orleans wins...then resolves to Yes.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

In the upcoming NBA Summer League game, scheduled for July 15 at 5:30PM ET: If the Cleveland Cavaliers win, the market will resolve to "Cleveland Cavaliers". If the New Orleans Pelicans win, the market will resolve to "New Orleans Pelicans". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Kalshi

This market covers the Pro Basketball Summer League game between New Orleans and Cleveland originally scheduled for July 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by the final result of the game, with each team's market resolving to Yes if that team achieves victory.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates prediction market data across Polymarket and Kalshi for the Cavaliers vs. Pelicans Summer League matchup, allowing traders to monitor real-time odds on the game's outcome. Both platforms enable users to buy and sell shares tied to the result, with prices reflecting the collective forecast of thousands of participants. The aggregated view surfaces consensus probability across venues, helping you compare how each platform's community assesses the matchup. Total trading volume and 24-hour activity metrics provide liquidity context for position sizing and entry timing.

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price events differently. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and extract a margin, while prediction markets derive prices from supply and demand among traders with real money at stake. Prediction market odds often reflect sharper, crowd-sourced forecasts because participants profit directly from accuracy rather than volume. However, sportsbooks may move faster on breaking news or injury reports. Comparing this market's prices to major sportsbook lines can reveal value opportunities, though prediction markets typically show tighter spreads and lower fees than traditional betting venues.

Key catalysts include roster announcements, injury reports, and preseason performance by either team's key players. Trades or roster moves involving high-profile prospects can shift expectations about Summer League competitiveness. Public betting trends and sharp money flowing into one side may trigger momentum. Weather, venue changes, or scheduling conflicts could also influence odds. Media coverage and expert commentary often accelerate price moves as new information reaches traders. Monitor team social media, league announcements, and sportsbook line movements for early signals that may not yet be reflected in this market's pricing.

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