TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$87,997,338
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,395,155,069
395,664
Markets across
30,076
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,626
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 12, 12:53 AM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether Amy Klobuchar will secure the Democratic nomination for Governor of Minnesota on Kalshi, currently showing a leading probability of 99.7% with Bill Gates Jr. at 0.5%. The resolution will be based on the official Democratic Party nomination outcome. The nomination process will conclude with a definitive result by the Democratic Party's nomination deadline on August 18, 2026.
Kalshi
The market resolves to Yes for whichever candidate wins the Democratic Party nomination for the 2026 Minnesota Governorship. Each outcome corresponds to a specific candidate, and resolution occurs when one candidate secures the party's official nomination through the primary or convention process.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling because markets incorporate real-money incentives and forward-looking expectations, whereas polls capture snapshot voter preference at a single moment. Markets may price in candidate momentum, fundraising strength, and endorsement effects faster than polls update. Conversely, polls can reflect broader electorate sentiment that hasn't yet moved betting odds. Comparing the two reveals whether traders are more or less bullish on specific candidates than the general public reports, offering complementary signals for tracking the race toward the Aug 18, 2026 resolution date.
The Minnesota Democratic Governor nominee market resolves on Aug 18, 2026, coinciding with the Democratic state convention and primary process. Resolution is determined by which candidate officially becomes the Democratic Party's gubernatorial nominee for the 2026 general election. The market tracks the formal nomination outcome recognized by the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party and state election authorities. Traders holding contracts on the eventual nominee receive full payout, while all other positions expire worthless. The clarity of this binary outcome makes it a straightforward event to settle.
Key catalysts include major candidate announcements or withdrawals, endorsements from prominent Minnesota Democrats or national figures, debate performances, fundraising disclosures, and primary election results if applicable. Shifts in polling or favorability ratings can trigger repricing. Scandals, gaffes, or negative media coverage affecting a frontrunner's viability may cause sharp odds swings. Convention dynamics, delegate counts, and behind-the-scenes party negotiations closer to Aug 18, 2026 often drive final price adjustments. Broader political events, economic conditions, or national Democratic messaging can also influence perceptions of which nominee offers the strongest general-election positioning.
