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$142.4b

24H VOL:

$104,871,197

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,592,701,755

469,827

Markets across

35,657

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,899

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Los Angeles Mayoral Election
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win Los Angeles Mayoral Election?

Total volume:
$117,581,194
Volume 24h:
$433,273
526%
Liquidity:
$305,542
1%
Open interest:
$53,850,626
0.47%

Nithya Raman

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jun 2, 2027

Who will win Los Angeles Mayoral Election?

55%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 55¢ buys you 182 shares | Odds: 55% Total Payout: $182 | Net Profit: $82 Multiplier: 1.82x | ROI: 82% | APY: 158% 230 days to resolution
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Nithya Raman

Trade
55%
2%
Yes 55¢No 46¢
1¢
N/A
$20,298,017
0.95%
7%
$6,778,953
7mo 2w 6d
active
polymarket

Nithya Raman

Trade
54%
Yes 54.3¢No 46.1¢
0.4¢
$159,809
$2,683,068
0.39%
7%
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
54.9%
Yes 54.7¢No 46.1¢
Avg: 0.7¢Max: 1¢
polymarket

Karen Bass

Trade
46%
Yes 46¢No 55¢
1¢
$145,733
$1,479,245
0.03%
5%
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
kalshi

Karen Bass

Trade
45%
2%
Yes 46¢No 55¢
1¢
N/A
$19,412,375
1%
9%
$7,796,555
7mo 2w 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
45%
Yes 46¢No 55¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
polymarket

Candidate H

Trade
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
disputed
polymarket

Candidate I

Trade
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
disputed
kalshi

Spencer Pratt

View
0%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$60,792,901
N/A
N/A
$37,936,154
7mo 2w 6d
No
kalshi

Adam Miller

View
0%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,050,919
N/A
N/A
$761,420
7mo 2w 6d
No
kalshi

Rick Caruso

View
0%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$276,928
N/A
N/A
$208,622
7mo 2w 6d
No
kalshi

Rae Huang

View
0%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$258,589
N/A
N/A
$194,045
7mo 2w 6d
No
kalshi

Asaad Alnajjar

View
0%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$96,384
N/A
N/A
$94,886
7mo 2w 6d
No
kalshi

Gina Viola

View
0%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$46,193
N/A
N/A
$45,193
7mo 2w 6d
No
kalshi

Austin Beutner

View
0%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$23,982
N/A
N/A
$19,589
7mo 2w 6d
No
kalshi

Vincent Wali

View
0%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$16,256
N/A
N/A
$15,211
7mo 2w 6d
No
polymarket

Spencer Pratt

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,857,675
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
No
polymarket

Lindsey Horvath

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,687,268
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
No
polymarket

Rae Huang

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$522,760
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
No
polymarket

Rick Caruso

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$494,515
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
No
polymarket

Adam Miller

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$198,985
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
No
polymarket

Gina Viola

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$166,044
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
No
polymarket

Asaad Alnajjar

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$140,311
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
No
polymarket

Austin Beutner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$44,925
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
No
polymarket

Monica Rodriguez

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$33,857
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
No
Total markets: 23

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election, forecasting which candidate will win. Currently, Polymarket and Kalshi, aggregated by PredictionHero, indicate a 54.1% probability that Nithya Raman will win the election, while Karen Bass has a 45.5% probability. Resolution will be based on official results from the City of Los Angeles election authorities. Keep an eye on the primary election results scheduled for March 2026, as they will indicate whether a runoff election will be necessary to determine the next mayor of Los Angeles.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Kalshi markets resolve positively if the specified candidate wins the Los Angeles mayoral election, relying on the same sources for official results.Primary resolution logic: Official results from the City of Los Angeles election authorities.

Core resolution logic:

  • The market resolves to 'Yes' if the named candidate wins the majority of votes in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election.
  • If no candidate receives a majority in the initial election, a runoff will be held, and the market resolves to 'Yes' if the named candidate wins the runoff.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Tie: In the unlikely event of a tie, the official tie-breaking procedures as determined by the City of Los Angeles will be followed, and the market will resolve based on the outcome of those procedures.
  • Candidate Withdrawal: If a candidate withdraws before the election, the market will remain open, and resolution will proceed based on the remaining candidates.
Timing: The markets will resolve after the official results of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election (including any runoff election) are certified by the City of Los Angeles election authorities, anticipated in November/December 2026.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.

Kalshi

If Karen Bass wins the Los Angeles Mayoral Election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Rick Caruso wins the Los Angeles Mayoral Election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Asaad Alnajjar wins the Los Angeles Mayoral Election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Vincent Wali wins the Los Angeles Mayoral Election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Gina Viola wins the Los Angeles Mayoral Election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Rae Huang wins the Los Angeles Mayoral Election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Spencer Pratt wins the Los Angeles Mayoral Election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Austin Beutner wins the Los Angeles Mayoral Election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Nithya Raman wins the Los Angeles Mayoral Election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Adam Miller wins the Los Angeles Mayoral Election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard aggregates real-time predictions on the outcome of the Los Angeles mayoral race. It displays a consensus view formed by the combined volume of $117,581,173 across both platforms, providing a weighted average of market participants’ beliefs. Currently, Polymarket shows a 54.1% probability for Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?, while Kalshi indicates a 55.0% probability for Who will win Los Angeles Mayoral Election?. The 24-hour volume is $433,662, demonstrating active trading and evolving sentiment.

Prediction market odds often offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what individuals are willing to *stake* on an outcome, potentially revealing more genuine beliefs. Polling averages can be influenced by biases or sampling errors, whereas the price action here aggregates the wisdom of the crowd. Discrepancies between prediction markets and polls can emerge due to differing methodologies and the incentives at play. It’s important to consider both sources of information when assessing the likely result of the Los Angeles mayoral race.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge for several reasons. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading limits, and fee structure, all of which can influence price discovery. Differences in liquidity – the amount of volume available – can also lead to price discrepancies. Furthermore, the specific market structures on each platform, such as the types of contracts offered, might attract different traders with varying perspectives on the Los Angeles mayoral race. These factors contribute to the dynamic interplay between the two markets.

This market resolves around Jun 2, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official results announced by the Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk for the Los Angeles mayoral election. The outcome will reflect which candidate receives the most votes and is officially declared the winner. The ongoing price action reflects traders’ anticipation of this result, and the market will settle to reflect the final, verified outcome.

Several events could significantly shift the odds in this market. Major endorsements from influential figures or organizations, significant fundraising announcements, and impactful debate performances are all potential catalysts. Unexpected scandals or controversies involving any of the candidates could also cause substantial price movement. Changes in the political landscape, such as shifts in voter demographics or key policy debates, could also influence traders’ perceptions. Furthermore, any new polling data released before Jun 2, 2027 will likely be closely watched and incorporated into the market price.