TOTAL VOLUME:
$97.4b
24H VOL:
$268,259,776
24H TRANSACTIONS:
951,878,243
OPEN INTEREST:
$2,159,026,548
830,716
Markets across
15,101
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
967
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Description
This market resolves based on the outcome of a single League of Legends Best-of-One match between G2 NORD and Team Orange Gaming in the Prime League 1st Division Regular Season, originally scheduled for April 1, 2026. The market will resolve to Yes if either team wins the match, creating a binary outcome dependent on match completion and official result confirmation.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve fundamentally different events. Kalshi markets resolve on match outcome (winner determination), while Polymarket markets resolve on specific in-game statistics from Game 1 only. Kalshi uses a binary match-winner framework; Polymarket uses granular game-state metrics. These are incompatible event types within the same group.Hero tip: Do not treat these as correlated bets. Kalshi tells you who wins the match; Polymarket tells you what happens inside Game 1 regardless of match outcome. A Kalshi YES (either team wins) is independent of Polymarket YES outcomes (inhibitors destroyed, penta kills, etc.). Hedge accordingly — winning the match does not predict in-game statistics.Critical divergence points:
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi resolves on match outcome only. Markets resolve YES if either G2 NORD or Team Orange Gaming wins the Prime League match scheduled for April 1, 2026. No in-game statistics are measured. Resolution source is official match result from gol.gg or credible consensus. 'If G2 NORD wins the Prime League 1st Division 2026: Team Orange Gaming vs. G2 NORD League of Legends match originally scheduled for Apr 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket resolves on granular Game 1 in-game statistics independent of match outcome. Five separate markets measure: inhibitor destruction, penta kills, baron slays, total kill parity (odd/even), quadra kills, and dragon slays. Each resolves based on whether specific in-game conditions occur during Game 1, not on who wins. 'This market is about whether both teams destroy at least one enemy inhibitor during Game 1.' All Polymarket markets reference gol.gg as primary source with 2-hour publication window.
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