TOTAL VOLUME:
$63.5b
24H VOL:
$343,077,021
24H TRANSACTIONS:
611,059,977
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,502,008,518
600,343
Markets across
14,407
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,267
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Knicks vs. Spurs? Odds & Prediction Markets
Closed: Jun 13, 8:30 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This event group tracks Stephon Castle's rebound performance in the NBA game between the New York Knicks and San Antonio Spurs scheduled for June 13, 2026. Across Predict, Kalshi, and Polymarket, the consensus probability for Castle to exceed 1.5 rebounds stands at 98.0%, aggregated from all three platforms. Resolution will be determined by official NBA statistics. Watch for the game tip-off on June 13, 2026 at 8:30 PM ET to see how Castle's rebounding activity settles the market.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi market definition contains a logical contradiction (both outcomes resolve to Yes) and lacks edge-case guidance. Predict and Polymarket define consistent winner-determination logic but Polymarket fragments the event group into three separate market types (winner, odd/even, first-to-score) with different resolution criteria.Hero Tip:
Do not trade on Kalshi until the market definition is corrected. For Predict and Polymarket winner markets, resolution is consistent: final score including overtime determines winner; postponement keeps market open; cancellation with no makeup resolves 50-50. Verify which specific market SKU you are trading (winner vs. score parity vs. first-to-score) before placing orders.Critical Divergence Points:
Predict:
Winner market resolves to 'Knicks' or 'Spurs' based on final score including overtime. Postponement keeps market open until game completion. Cancellation with no makeup resolves 50-50. Key Quote: 'If the Knicks win, the market will resolve to Knicks. If the Spurs win, the market will resolve to Spurs.'Kalshi:
Market definition states both 'If San Antonio wins... resolves to Yes' AND 'If New York wins... resolves to Yes' — logically impossible. No guidance on postponement, cancellation, or tie scenarios. This is a data integrity failure.Polymarket:
Defines three distinct markets: (1) Winner (Knicks vs. Spurs), (2) Odd/Even combined score, (3) First to score. Winner market logic matches Predict (final score including overtime; postponement keeps open; cancellation resolves 50-50). However, fragmentation across three SKUs creates scope ambiguity for this event group.
Polymarket
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for June 13 at 8:30PM ET: If the Knicks win, the market will resolve to "Knicks". If the Spurs win, the market will resolve to "Spurs". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
Kalshi
If San Antonio wins the Game 5: New York at San Antonio professional basketball game originally scheduled for Jun 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If New York wins the Game 5: New York at San Antonio professional basketball game originally scheduled for Jun 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Predict
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for June 13 at 8:30PM ET: If the Knicks win, the market will resolve to "Knicks". If the Spurs win, the market will resolve to "Spurs". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
Frequently asked questions
Kalshi and Polymarket can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price differences between Kalshi and Polymarket arise from distinct user bases, liquidity pools, and fee structures. Kalshi may attract different trader demographics or have tighter spreads on certain outcomes, while Polymarket might see heavier volume on alternative props. Latency in cross-platform arbitrage, regional access restrictions, and variations in market depth all contribute to temporary price gaps. These spreads create opportunities for alert traders and highlight how fragmented prediction markets remain despite tracking the same Knicks vs. Spurs event.
Key catalysts for Knicks vs. Spurs odds include roster changes, injury announcements to star players, recent team form and win streaks, and head-to-head historical trends. Playoff seeding implications, back-to-back scheduling, and travel fatigue can shift market sentiment. Late-breaking news—such as lineup adjustments or coaching decisions—often triggers sharp moves on Kalshi and Polymarket in the hours before tip-off. Monitor team social media, beat reporters, and injury reports to stay ahead of market repricing.
Related events
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.