TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
Description
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Primary resolution logic:
Official FIFA information; credible reporting consensus as secondary sourceCore resolution logic:
- Market resolves YES if the specified national team wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup
- Market resolves NO if the specified team is eliminated from the tournament at any stage (group stage, knockout, etc.)
- Market resolves NO immediately upon elimination based on FIFA tournament rules
- If 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or not completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC, market resolves to Other (Polymarket/Predict) or No (Kalshi)
- Resolution determined by official FIFA sources; credible reporting may supplement official information
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Tournament Cancellation: If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC, Polymarket and Predict markets resolve to Other; Kalshi markets resolve to No
- Early Elimination: If a team is eliminated in group stage or knockout rounds, their market resolves immediately to No based on FIFA tournament rules
- Team Withdrawal: If a team withdraws or is disqualified before or during the tournament, market resolves to No
- Polymarket Any Other Team Option: Polymarket includes an Any Other Team market that resolves Yes if a team not explicitly listed wins the tournament
- Predict Other Option: Predict includes an Other market that resolves Yes if none of the listed teams wins or if tournament is canceled/incomplete by deadline
Timing:
Resolution occurs immediately upon tournament completion when FIFA announces the winner, or by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC (deadline for tournament completion)Follow the signals, not the noise
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