TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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United States vs. Paraguay
limitless
polymarket
predict
kalshi

United States vs. Paraguay

Volume:
$101,208,887

USA

all

4 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

Limitless

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 13, 2026

Closed: Jun 12, 11:03 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

USA

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$42,944,611
N/A
N/A
$28,858,154
Settled
Yes
polymarket

United States

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$27,738,898
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
limitless

USA

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
80.8¢
N/A
$7,049
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

USA

View
N/A
N/A
—
$85,661
$1,223,351
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Paraguay

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10,744,545
N/A
N/A
$8,666,265
Settled
No
polymarket

Paraguay

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,135,768
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

PAR

View
N/A
N/A
—
$1,510
$216,937
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
limitless

Paraguay

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
99.5¢
N/A
$1,464
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,539,065
N/A
N/A
$4,095,960
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw (United States vs. Paraguay)

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,433,133
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Draw

View
N/A
N/A
—
$1,018
$223,725
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
limitless

Draw

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
99.5¢
N/A
$340
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 12

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of the United States versus Paraguay FIFA World Cup soccer match scheduled for June 12, 2026, specifically whether the USA will win after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. The aggregated consensus across Limitless, Polymarket, Predict, and Kalshi shows a 99.3% probability for a US victory. Resolution is determined by the official result of the match as played on June 12, 2026, with markets settling by June 14, 2026. Watch the match kickoff on June 12 to see if the consensus holds or if Paraguay can produce an upset.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Date mismatch between platforms (June 12 vs June 13, 2026) and asymmetric cancellation logic across draw vs win markets. Limitless also imposes a hard resolution deadline of July 13, 2026, 01:00 UTC.Hero tip: Confirm the official FIFA World Cup fixture date immediately. Monitor for any schedule changes or postponements. If the match is canceled entirely, draw markets on Polymarket and Predict will resolve YES while win markets resolve NO—creating a logical inconsistency. Limitless markets will resolve based on whether an official result exists by July 13, 2026, 01:00 UTC.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: All three outcomes (USA win, tie, Paraguay win) resolve YES if they occur after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No explicit cancellation or postponement clause. Match date: June 12, 2026.
  • Limitless: USA and Paraguay markets resolve NO if match is not completed with official result by July 13, 2026, 01:00 UTC. Draw market resolves YES if match is not completed OR ends in a draw. Match date: June 13, 2026 (one day later than other platforms).
  • Polymarket: USA and Paraguay win markets resolve NO if canceled with no make-up game. Draw market resolves YES if canceled entirely with no make-up game. Markets remain open if postponed. Match date: June 12, 2026. Resolution source: FIFA official statistics or credible reporting consensus within 2 hours.
  • Predict: Identical to Polymarket: USA and Paraguay win resolve NO on cancellation; draw resolves YES on cancellation. Markets remain open if postponed. Match date: June 12, 2026. Resolution source: FIFA official statistics or credible reporting consensus within 2 hours.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This event is for the upcoming FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for Friday, June 12, 2026 between United States and Paraguay.

Kalshi

The USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Cup match scheduled for June 12, 2026 will be evaluated based on the final outcome after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. The market resolves to USA if USA wins, to Paraguay if Paraguay wins, or to Tie if the match ends in a draw. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled more than two weeks from the original date, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. This market has not been endorsed by FIFA, and any references to FIFA or the FIFA World Cup are descriptive only and do not indicate endorsement or affiliation.

Predict

This event is for the upcoming FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for Friday, June 12, 2026 between United States and Paraguay.

Limitless

This market resolves to "YES" if the club named in the title is winning after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties) in the match scheduled for the date shown in the title. If the club does not win or if the match is not completed with an official result by July 13, 2026, 01:00 UTC, the market will resolve to "NO."

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate independently from traditional sportsbooks, often reflecting different risk profiles and trader compositions. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract margin, while prediction markets aggregate decentralized trader beliefs in real time. The USA vs Paraguay market on prediction platforms tends to move faster in response to team news, injuries, and lineup changes because traders profit directly from accurate forecasts. Comparing the two reveals arbitrage opportunities and shows whether the crowd or professional oddsmakers are more bullish on the United States. Prediction market odds are typically tighter and more efficient over time.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, causing temporary price gaps. Polymarket and Kalshi may have different contract specifications—for example, one asks about a USA win on a specific date while the other frames it more broadly—leading to subtle probability shifts. Liquidity depth varies between platforms; lower volume on one side can push odds further from consensus. Regulatory or operational differences, plus the timing of large trades, create windows where savvy traders exploit mispricings. These gaps typically narrow as arbitrageurs move capital between platforms, but they persist long enough to reward active monitoring of both markets simultaneously.

Key injury announcements, lineup confirmations, and team form shifts will drive USA vs Paraguay odds significantly. Unexpected roster changes, coaching decisions, or tactical adjustments can swing trader sentiment within hours. International friendlies or qualifying matches involving either team in the lead-up period often trigger repricing as traders update their confidence. Weather forecasts, venue conditions, and historical head-to-head performance reviews also influence the market. Social media sentiment, expert commentary, and betting syndicates entering the market can create sharp moves. Monitoring Polymarket and Kalshi volume spikes helps you spot when major catalysts are moving professional traders, signaling high-conviction shifts in the consensus probability.