TOTAL VOLUME:
$116.7b
24H VOL:
$103,238,539
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,362,287,844
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,173,199,778
338,330
Markets across
33,339
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,209
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
How many views will the #1 Movie on Netflix have this week?
20M+
- Polymarket
20M+ - Polymarket
0.5%
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Aug 20
Aug 21
Aug 22
Aug 23
Aug 24
Aug 24
Aug 27
Vol.
$976.2
·
Resolves Aug 25, 2026
Will the #1 global Netflix movie have at least 20 million views this week?
$
Description
This event group tracks the viewership of the top-ranked movie on Netflix for the week ending August 25, 2026. Markets across different platforms are querying whether this movie reaches various viewership thresholds.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All platforms use the same Netflix source and tie-breaking rule for resolving viewership thresholds.Primary resolution logic: Netflix Global Top 10 Movies list (top10.netflix.com)Core resolution logic:
- Resolution depends on the view count of the #1 global Netflix movie as reported by Netflix on August 25, 2026.
- If multiple movies tie for #1, the one with the alphabetically first title is used.
- Markets resolve to 'Yes' if the view count meets or exceeds the specified threshold; otherwise, 'No'.
- If the Netflix list is not updated by August 28, 2026, Polymarket resolves to 'Other'; Kalshi markets have no explicit fallback.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Update Delay: Polymarket resolves to 'Other' if the Netflix list is not updated by August 28, 2026. Kalshi markets lack a specified fallback, creating potential unresolved outcomes.
- Tie for #1: The movie with the alphabetically first title among tied #1 movies determines the resolution.
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the movie this update ranks as the #1 global Netflix movie has a views figure greater than or equal to the specified amount, according to Netflix. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If multiple movies tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the view count of the movie whose listed title comes first alphabetically. This market will not consider hours viewed. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for Global Top 10 Movies (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Kalshi
Analogous to the show markets, multiple markets exist for movies with varying view thresholds (6 million, 9 million, 12 million, etc.). Each market resolves to Yes if the top English-language movie on Netflix's weekly Global charts achieves at least the stated number of views as published on August 25, 2026. The chart update and market close timing align with Tuesday updates, and views are counted rather than hours. As with the show markets, there is no endorsement from Netflix.
Frequently asked questions
On Polymarket, traders currently assign a very high probability to this market, reflecting strong confidence that the leading outcome will occur. This contrasts with some analyst forecasts, which may assign slightly lower probabilities based on historical streaming trends and release calendars. The gap highlights how market participants price in real-time sentiment and recent viewing patterns differently from traditional models.
This market resolves around Aug 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the view count for the top Netflix movie this week is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final numbers are typically released by Netflix or reputable media outlets shortly after the week ends, settling all positions based on the actual performance.
Key signals include last-minute viewing spikes driven by weekend audiences, promotional pushes from Netflix, or competing entertainment releases that could divert attention. Any surprise addition or removal of titles to the top spot, as well as media coverage highlighting viewership trends, may also shift probabilities on this market before it closes.
