TOTAL VOLUME:
$148.8b
24H VOL:
$198,054,468
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,818,096,072
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,851,647,753
460,044
Markets across
34,696
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,795
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
Above 52
- Kalshi
Above 52 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Feb 1, 2027
Latest in Elections
Will the Democratic Party hold more than 52 seats in the 120th Congress?
$
Intro
This market tracks whether the Democratic Party will control more than 52 seats in the United States Senate following the midterm elections and subsequent changes. Currently, Kalshi gives a 37.0% probability to the Democratic Party holding more than 52 seats in the 120th Congress, while the market assigns an 18.0% probability to them holding exactly 52 seats. Kalshi will resolve this market based on the number of Senate seats held by the Democratic Party on February 1, 2027, as detailed in their resolution source. Keep a close watch on the results of the 2026 midterm elections, as those outcomes will heavily influence the final seat count used for resolution on February 1, 2027.
Kalshi
Resolution counts Democratic Party seats on February 1, 2027, with a critical distinction: individuals who caucus with the Democratic Party are included in the Democratic count, even if they are formally registered as independents. This approach recognizes that independent senators who align with Democratic leadership (such as Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders) function as part of the Democratic caucus for legislative purposes. The market resolves to the outcome matching the actual seat count on the specified date, covering the full range from below 45 seats through above 52 seats.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different Senate seat outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly, providing a dynamic and real-time forecast. The market’s depth – the volume of contracts available at different price points – also indicates the level of confidence traders have in their predictions.
This market resolves around Feb 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the final Senate composition is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official results of the Midterm elections as reported by recognized election authorities. The number of seats held by the Democratic Party will be counted to determine the winning outcome in this market. Traders should monitor news sources leading up to and following the election to stay informed about the progress of the count and any potential challenges to the results.
Several factors could significantly impact this market between now and Feb 1, 2027. Major economic announcements, unexpected political developments, shifts in key Senate races due to candidate performance or scandals, and significant changes in polling data are all potential catalysts. Unexpected endorsements, major campaign fundraising reports, or even unforeseen events like natural disasters could also influence trader sentiment and cause prices to fluctuate. Any news that alters perceptions of the likely election outcome has the potential to move this market.
