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How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
kalshi

How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?

Dec 30, 2025, 10:00 AM EST - Feb 1, 2027, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$4,023,046
Volume 24h:
$144,930
4%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$3,001,908
4%

Above 249

 - Kalshi

Above 249 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Feb 1, 2027

Will the Democratic party win above 249 House seats in the 120th Congress?

18%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 18¢ buys you 556 shares | Odds: 18% Total Payout: $556 | Net Profit: $456 Multiplier: 5.56x | ROI: 456% APY not meaningful 98 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 249

Trade
18%
1%
Yes 18¢No 83¢
1¢
N/A
$770,147
3%
19%
$532,879
3mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

234-237

Trade
15%
1%
Yes 15¢No 86¢
1¢
N/A
$239,158
1%
23%
$184,274
3mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

238-241

Trade
14%
Yes 14¢No 87¢
1¢
N/A
$240,472
1%
21%
$186,948
3mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

242-245

Trade
12%
1%
Yes 12¢No 89¢
1¢
N/A
$281,140
12%
57%
$208,004
3mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

230-233

Trade
10%
2%
Yes 9.7¢No 90.6¢
0.3¢
N/A
$241,203
1%
29%
$186,997
3mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

246-249

Trade
9%
Yes 8.8¢No 91.4¢
0.2¢
N/A
$294,246
5%
46%
$198,491
3mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

226-229

Trade
7%
2%
Yes 7.3¢No 94.4¢
1.7¢
N/A
$231,595
2%
26%
$185,917
3mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

222-225

Trade
5%
Yes 5.3¢No 94.8¢
0.1¢
N/A
$241,408
7%
49%
$194,413
3mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

Below 210

Trade
4%
1%
Yes 3.9¢No 96.3¢
0.2¢
N/A
$533,772
5%
20%
$414,494
3mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

210-213

Trade
3%
Yes 2.9¢No 97.2¢
0.1¢
N/A
$320,820
0.1%
20%
$271,575
3mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

214-217

Trade
3%
Yes 2.9¢No 97.2¢
0.1¢
N/A
$341,468
2%
9%
$233,761
3mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

218-221

Trade
3%
Yes 2.9¢No 97.3¢
0.2¢
N/A
$287,618
6%
39%
$204,156
3mo 1w 1d
active
Total markets: 12

Description

The Democratic Party holds a certain range of House seats on February 1, 2027.

Kalshi

If the Democratic party has below 210 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Democratic party has between 210-213 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Democratic party has between 214-217 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Democratic party has between 218-221 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Democratic party has between 222-225 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Democratic party has between 226-229 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Democratic party has between 230-233 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Democratic party has between 234-237 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Democratic party has between 238-241 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Democratic party has between 242-245 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Democratic party has between 246-249 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Democratic party has above 249 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, prediction market odds suggest a different outlook than many traditional polls and analyst forecasts. While polls often focus on individual races, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd to assess the overall probability of Democrats holding a specific number of seats. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and the inclusion of factors not captured in polls, such as fundraising, candidate quality, and potential late-breaking events. It's important to consider both sources of information when forming an informed opinion about the upcoming election.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect changing expectations. The market’s price discovery process allows for a dynamic and real-time assessment of the potential results of the midterm elections, based on the aggregated views of participants.

This market resolves around Feb 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the final House seat distribution is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official results certified by the relevant election authorities. The number of seats held by the Democratic party will be counted following the conclusion of the election and any subsequent recounts or legal challenges. This market aims to reflect the final composition of the House of Representatives after the midterm elections.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Major economic news, such as unexpected changes in inflation or unemployment, could shift voter sentiment. Significant political events, like major endorsements, gaffes by candidates, or unexpected legislative developments, could also cause price fluctuations. Polling data releases, particularly those showing substantial shifts in key races, will likely impact trading activity. Finally, any unforeseen events, such as natural disasters or international crises, could alter the political landscape and move this market.