TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.3b

24H VOL:

$107,419,736

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,594,026,835

471,138

Markets across

35,775

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,926

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
predict

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Mar 4, 2026, 11:30 AM EST - Jan 1, 2027, 12:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$22,018,091
Volume 24h:
$125,629
15%
Liquidity:
$52,123,164
2%
Open interest:
N/AN/A

0 (0 bps)

 - Predict

0 (0 bps) - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

96%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 96.2¢ buys you 104 shares | Odds: 96% Total Payout: $104 | Net Profit: $4 Multiplier: 1.04x | ROI: 4% | APY: 20% 78 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

0 (0 bps)

Trade
96%
Yes 96.2¢No 3.9¢
0.1¢
$51,229,713
$1,287,849
0.54%
3%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
predict

1 (25 bps)

Trade
3%
Yes 2.8¢No 97.3¢
0.1¢
$141,099
$949,772
1%
2%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
predict

2 (50 bps)

Trade
1%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.4¢
0.1¢
$207,404
$1,401,075
0.2%
2%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
predict

3 (75 bps)

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.7¢
0.1¢
$201,190
$773,313
0.55%
0.71%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
predict

5 (125 bps)

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.8¢
—
$33,651
$3,514,165
3%
17%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
predict

12+ (300+ bps)

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$55,910
$3,863,137
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
predict

10 (250 bps)

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$43,734
$3,021,262
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
predict

4 (100 bps)

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$38,860
$2,595,661
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
predict

11 (275 bps)

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$41,988
$1,423,522
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
predict

6 (150 bps)

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$31,792
$1,304,301
0%
8%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
predict

8 (200 bps)

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$32,381
$820,562
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
predict

9 (225 bps)

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$33,065
$783,605
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
predict

7 (175 bps)

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$32,376
$279,867
0%
0.02%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
Total markets: 13

Description

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Predict

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the 2026 Fed rate cut market tracks the probabilities of different outcomes regarding the number of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2026. You can view the current odds, see a price history chart, and observe the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $125,409. Total volume across the lifetime of this market is $22,018,091. The dashboard provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets on monetary policy, offering a forward-looking perspective on economic expectations.

Currently, prediction market traders indicate a high probability of no Fed rate cuts in 2026. This contrasts with recent polls of economists and financial analysts, which show a wider range of expectations, with some anticipating at least one or two cuts depending on inflation and employment data. While polls reflect expert opinions, this market represents a collective forecast based on individuals putting their money where their mouths are. It’s important to note that prediction markets often provide a more accurate forecast than traditional polls, as traders have a financial incentive to be correct.

On Predict, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the number of Fed rate cuts in 2026. The price of each contract reflects the implied probability of that outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. Currently, the most likely outcome, according to traders on Predict, is no rate cuts at all, with a probability of 96.2%.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the actual number of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2026 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on official announcements from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regarding changes to the federal funds rate throughout the calendar year 2026. The market will settle to 100% for the outcome that accurately reflects the total number of rate cuts implemented by the Fed during that period.

Several key economic indicators and events could significantly impact this market. Unexpected changes in inflation data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), would likely cause traders to reassess their expectations. Strong or weak employment reports, shifts in GDP growth, and geopolitical events could also influence the market. Furthermore, statements from Federal Reserve officials regarding future monetary policy, such as speeches or FOMC meeting minutes, will be closely watched by traders and could lead to substantial price movements.